With yesterday’s push above an established trading range, Bitcoin (BTC) is keeping itself viable in what is likely a new HTF uptrend. Old resistance is being left behind, and the leading crypto is now encountering new and exotic resistance levels above it.
We start on the weekly, and first note last week’s full, bullish candle pushing into a new resistance node. Despite the powerful profile, however, we see that volume on Bitstamp was only decent, and that volume this week has so far been less impressive.
The RSI is looking sweet, however, after having now peeked into the historical ‘bullzone’ on the weekly chart. The histogram is also looking excellent after crossing hard into the positive side of the indicator.
We must note here that Bitcoin has entered a very important new resistance zone, starting at the thick black line: this is derived from the 2017, and thus represents the border of a two-year trend. If we are in a new uptrend, Bitcoin is going to need to clear this; and if it does, we could see some real fireworks.
Moving to the daily chart, we see this block between $8.5-9.5k cleared. The final push above this block came yesterday, on pretty good volume on Bitstamp. Volume in general has mostly kept up with the MTF January uptrend, flagging only slightly with rising price.
We see a rising wedge type formation, coming off the end of what are likely three waves up. Rising wedges often signal incoming bearish markets, and it would not be a surprise to see price consolidate in the just-taken zone around $9,100. (Although we must add that rising wedges usually come at the end of trends, whereas here it would be just the beginning of a HTF uptrend – and for this, it is possibly invalidated.) At any rate, the histogram is contracting pretty tightly now, which suggests a larger move is coming.
Finally, if we move to the 4-hour chart, we see a rebuttal to the daily’s possible bearish scenario of a rising wedge. Here, a very clear breakout from range-bound price action last week has come on good volume.
Given the decisive nature of this break, we can expect $9,500 – or thereabouts – to hold. The histogram is trending down now, softly, and we are likely to see at least a little correction and consolidation around here in the short term.
Bitcoin remains bullish on most of its timeframes and indicators, and most importantly on the HTF charts. What we have seen is very possibly the first leg of a HTF uptrend just put in.
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