On Monday (February 17), as Bitcoin continued its fall below $10,000, popular pseudonymous analyst "PlanB" (@100trillionUSD) advised his followers on Twitter to keep their eyes on the big picture.
Bitcoin didn't have a great weekend.
According to data from CryptoCompare , Bitcoin started the weekend at $10,343, and ended it at $9,872, as you can see in the price-chart below:
For holders of Bitcoin, the pain continued on Monday. By around 14:00, when PlanB took to Twitter, Bitcoin had fallen to $9,609:
This is when PlanB told his Twitter followers to "ignore the noise" and "focus on the signal":
In a Medium blog post published on 19 March 2019, PlanB talked about scarcity in terms of the stock-to-flow (SF) ratio -- where stock is "the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves" and flow is "the yearly production" -- and used this to model Bitcoin's value.
The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000. That is quite spectacular. I guess time will tell and we will probably know one or two years after the halving, in 2020 or 2021.
In a tweet sent out last Monday, PlanB said that he expected the price of Bitcoin to be over $10K by the next block mining reward halving (expected on 12 May 2020), at which point he expects the major bull run to start, taking the Bitcoin price all the way to $100K before the end of 2021: