XRP Squeezing Toward Potential Breakout — Price Analysis

Colin Muller
  • Short term trend: Uptrend likely exhausted
  • Medium term trend: Support must be found near $0.20 for uptrend continuation
  • Long term trend: 7-month downtrend nowhere challenged yet

Many altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the past few weeks, in within this context leading altcoin XRP (XRP) has been a notable laggard. It has seen modest growth on its USD chart, but against BTC it has been heavily sold off with each breakout attempt. Nevertheless, strength seems to be growing for XRP/Bitcoin which may suggest a hope for maintaining a medium-term uptrend.

On the daily XRP/BTC chart, we see some interesting signs of strength building. There is a clear bull divergence on the RSI for roughly the last month of price action. Then, on the histogram, we see an extended presence in the positive, and a plateau formation for the last week, which is keeping it from arching down for a bearish expansion.

It's getting frothyXRP chart by TradingView

The problem is that price keeps getting rejected hard above the 55 EMA, even as strength builds on the bottom side of the chart. This may signal a conscious accumulation under the 55, in anticipation of a breakout.

One final thing we can note here is the intense wicking that has come about in the last couple of weeks, especially; this implies a contentious conflict between bears and bulls, and growing energy in general.

Moving to the daily dollar pairing, we see that XRP is suffering from the slight Bitcoin selloff currently going on, and has broken out of a parallel uptrending channel. A test of the 21 and 55 EMAs, clustered together, seems imminent. The RSI trend looks to be breaking at time of writing, and the histogram is arched down steeply – but neither of these indicators is yet painted, and XRP could still hold at the EMAs.

Short term uptrend likely overXRP chart by TradingView

If it doesn’t, the support block between $0.22-20 is the first test to hold the altcoin. Finding support here would preserve the possibility of a continuation of the medium-term uptrend, with the first leg up that uptrend contained and completed in the channel.

Finally, moving to a 3-day dollar pairing, we see that the prospect of a continuing uptrend would be a welcome response to what is a downtrend of one higher degree (long term). This downtrend has been in play since July, and if XRP could get another leg up, it seems possible for this channel to be broken.

A possible scenario if support can be foundXRP chart by TradingView

But it seems clear that support must be found above $0.20 before that can happen. The histogram here clearly implies that the short term uptrend is over for now. This is therefore a concept to be revisited if and when support and consolidation is found.

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