According to Thomas Lee, Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Head of Research at independent research boutique Fundstrat Global Advisors, his technical analysis of Bitcoin's most recent price action suggests that Bitcoin is "re-entering bull market."
Lee, who was appearing on Fast Money to give his views on the stock, bond, and crypto markets, was asked by the show's host, CNBC news anchor Brian Sullivan, if he was still bullish on Bitcoin.
"Yeah, 2020 should be great for Bitcoin because you got number one the halvening happening -- the block reward for miners getting cut in half -- that's a good supply demand change. I think last year the White House killed the Bitcoin rally with their opposition, but with the presidential election cycle underway, it's not gonna be in the headlines, and that's bullish for Bitcoin. And then with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, I think that's good for crypto... We're getting a lot more interest in it from our clients."
Well, yesterday (January 29), Lee tweeted that Bitcoin crossing its 200-day moving average on January 27 should be seen as a "positive milestone" and reinforces his belief that 2020 should be a "great year" for Bitcoin.
Lee explained that whenever the Bitcoin price breaks above its 200-day moving average, the "win-rate" (over the next six months) increases to 80%, and means that Bitcoin is "re-entering" bullet market territory:
Bitcoin moved back above its 200-day moving average on 1/27... positive milestone and reinforcing 2020 shaping up to be great year for $BTC #bitcoin— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 29, 2020
- whenever BTC >200D, win-rate (6M forward) jumps to 80% and essentially "re-entering" bull market (>200D)#BTD #bestasset2020 pic.twitter.com/YbpQYHpLaj
It is also worth noting that one day earlier -- i.e. on Tuesday (January 28) -- Lee said that Bitcoin, with a 26% return on investment (ROI) in the year-to-date period (YTD), was the best-performing asset class, beating even the performance of gold:
Bitcoin is best performing asset class YTD +26%... demand for "safe haven" is boosting Bitcoin and arguably, #Bitcoin is seen as a better "safe haven" than $Gold #gold— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 28, 2020
- Gold is up a decent 3% vs a whopping 26% for Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/GWKEfYGcut
On January 10, Lee tweeted about a report he had published on January 9 about the outlook for crypto in 2020. According to this report, there are three positive convergences/catalysts for Bitcoin in 2020:
- Bitcoin halving/halvening (which is expected to take place around 12 May 2020).
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
We published our 2020 Crypto outlook and made the full report available for our clients.— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 10, 2020
- bottom line: financial markets tend to discount 1-3 months, and maybe 6 months (max). So highest probability is halvening not priced in
Cc: https://t.co/YRDQQ7TSzv $BTC #bitcoin #BTFD pic.twitter.com/i6sOIVQoc0