Ethereum Holding Local Uptrend in Bull Flag — Price Analysis

  • LTF (Low timeframe) trend: Likely reversal back to uptrend on both charts
  • MTF trend: Uptrend likely preserved for another leg on both charts
  • HTF trend: Solid work toward a reversal from the downtrend

Ethereum (ETH) started trending up versus Bitcoin (BTC) on roughly 8 January, and has outperformed it well since then. With support holding well over the weekend, we are pretty likely to see this continue; and given Bitcoin’s own bullish behavior, this could translate very well to ETH/Dollar. In the bigger picture, the perennial question of a reversal from the HTF downtrend is still the question – and it looks like we’ll have another shot at this soon.

We start on the ETH/Bitcoin weekly chart, which painted yesterday, and the most notable thing here is that price held above the 8-week EMA. This is the first milestone to recovery for the eviscerated altcoin, which has been broadly thrashed since June.

Nearing an exitETH chart by TradingView

A large bullish RSI divergence on a double bottom, and a flat trajectory up on the histogram, are the other indicators to note on this chart. Both of these project building strength for Ethereum, and signal the possibility – like Bitcoin – of putting paid to the H2 2019 downtrend.

On the daily ETH/Bitcoin pairing, we see equally promising signs. Like on the weekly, the daily sports a prominent, bullish RSI divergence, and a histogram well in bullish territory. ETH/BTC here looks to have consolidated the first leg of an MTF uptrend, and is holding in clear support – and likely bull flag which is flipped from previous resistance.

Support is holding here, so farETH chart by TradingView

With another leg up, we can easily imagine Ethereum leaving its previous MTF downtrend, illustrated here as the grey parallel channel.What is lacking here, it seems, is volume enough to push Ethereum up into a stronger uptrend (Binance). Perhaps this will come in if the region around ₿0.02 is broken.

Finally, turning to the weekly ETH/Dollar pairing, we see a healthy picture that supports the bullish ETH/BTC charts. Here, we see that Ethereum is already chewing at the 2019 downtrend. Price closed last week above both the 21 EMA, and above the important $160 mark; and here, we also see specific buying at the 8 EMA.

Market seems aware of the EMAsETH chart by TradingView

So far, it looks likely that the MTF uptrend, comprised of five weeks of positive price action, may well hold. Last week was a corrective week, and not even a red candle was painted over it. On the histogram we see the bars breaking well into positive territory after many months, and after an extensive bullish divergence.

Ethereum is looking healthy and stands a good chance of actually breaking the downtrend – although we also saw failed attempts in September and November at just the same thing. But the steady progress is there to see.

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