Bitcoin Right at the Limit of Breaking Downtrend — Price Analysis

Colin Muller
  • Short term trend: Leaning up from previous days’ consolidation
  • Long term trend: The long downtrend has not been broken yet

After holding yesterday in a consolidation pattern after its latest surge, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be signaling a move up rather than a break down for further consolidation. The leading crypto is now at the very edge of breaking up and out of the main resistance levels of 2019.

We go first to the 4-hour chart to understand the latest shift in direction. Bitcoin has broken above the local top, at about $8,900, and is holding there at time of writing. A break down into the blue support area for a retracement was, if not expected, completely within the larger bullish trend.

Holding above local topBTC chart by TradingView

It remains to be seen whether or not this will prove to be a fakeout, but the breach has already been made. Price has far outpaced the EMAs, so it should continue up soon before it gets pulled back down by their gravity.

If we move to the daily chart, we see a rather striking confluence of factors on the chart all converging exactly on Bitcoin’s present price. First, we see that the exact point of inflection is at $9,090, just $100-ish up from the current price. What’s more, we also see that the 200-day moving average (simple) is at virtually the exact same price.

Quite a coincidenceBTC chart by TradingView

Bitcoin is at the point of engaging with both of these levels. At which point they are taken with strength, we will be very close to confirming a change of long term trend from down to up.

Finally, on a much tighter daily chart, we see that the last two days’ wicks down were bought up quickly. On the RSI, price is not in the technical overbought zone just yet, which gives it a nice runway for another leg up if it wants one. We see that yesterday’s histogram bar closed a little down; but there has been some chop recently on this timeframe, so we should take it with a grain of salt, especially considering the situation.

Room to moveBTC chart by TradingView

The Bitcoin trend is certainly up on both medium and short term timeframes. Things look set up for another run-up to the critical $9.1k level and perhaps through it; although, as we covered yesterday, there is plenty of room in the mid-$8k region for a healthy retracement without damage to the medium-term uptrend

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