As we correctly forecast here yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) has completed its consolidation around $8,600 and continued to the downside in an extension of its correction from $9,100. It has entered clear support starting at about $8,200, and there is a decent chance of the correction find a bottom within that zone.
We start on the 4-hour and see that the drop in volume telegraphed today’s move down. The typical 3-wave movement of a correction is likely to find support above $8,140 or thereabouts, with support derived from recent resistance.
The histogram is still pointing down hard at time of writing, implying that momentum is still to the downside and might take a bit more time to bleed off. Of course, all of this assumes that Bitcoin’s movement here is a simple correction and not a trend change; in other words, this assumes that the medium-term trend is still up, which may well turn out to be false.
If we take a look at the daily, we see that the scope for a retracement is liberal within the medium timeframe uptrend, starting on January 3. Price can come down to $7,700 without setting off major alarm bells within this market structure; down, namely, to the “golden pocket” .618-65 area of the Fibonacci scale.
We see that the RSI here is engaging a key inflection point on its scale, around 50%. Ideally, we’d like to see this hold and preserve a strong medium uptrend. The histogram looks alarming here, poised to cross over negative with a decent momentum. It is noteworthy that the last two times we’ve seen this, Bitcoin was bought up at the 11th hour and the medium uptrend preserved.
Finally, moving to the weekly chart, we see the larger picture and the overall risky position that Bitcoin is in. The leading crypto has so far soundly failed to break out of the downtrend it’s been in for seven months, and failed to surmount the important $9,100 mark.
At this point, it is threatening to again lose the 21-week EMA; and this would put the 55 EMA into serious question. This week is likely very important for setting Bitcoin’s trend in 2020 – and so far, things are not looking great.
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