During an interview on Monday (December 2) on Bloomberg TV with Taylor Riggs and Haidi Stroud-Watts, Spencer Bogart, a general partner at crypto-focused venture capital firm Blockchain Capital, explained why he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin.
RIggs started the interview by telling Bogart that when shows look at Bitcoin price charts, she notices that Bitcoin is "trying to hold in support at the 200-day moving average, but the RSI doesn't look oversold just yet," and asked Bogart for his thoughts on Bitcoin's recent price action.
"... I think China has definitely been driving some of the price action over the past couple months, but you know, I think it's challenging to read between the lines on what China is doing.
"I mean, we've seen some favorable moves in terms of Xi Jinping's move to blockchain the whole country and put it as a strategic priority. And then we've also seen some moves like Bitcoin miners were once put on a list of industries to be eliminated from the country. It's been removed from that list. So a slightly friendlier stance in that respect. And so, while we've seen some crackdown on some of these smaller and shadier crypto exchanges, some of the larger ones seem to be getting a little bit more credibility within the country."
Stroud-Watts then pointed out that China's mixed messaging on crypto can make it hard for investors to bet on the future of digital assets, and asked Bogart what he thinks about this.
"Yeah, absolutely! I mean, look, I don't think Bitcoin's futures is in any way dependent on what China does. So I think it's helpful to kind of zoom out, get away from some of the near-term headlines because I think in general any kind of short-term trading strategy around Bitcoin is the wrong one.
"I think the question that people need to be asking is: Is Bitcoin going to be more successful over the next five years than it is today?
"And I think if we look at all of the underlying trends here, they're all very constructive. I mean, Bitcoin has gone from being a joke just a few years ago to processing one to three billion dollars worth of transactions daily. I mean, if we look back over the past two years, Bitcoin, has probably processed than $1.6 trillion dollars of transactions.
"So whether it's that or some of the startups that we're seeing that are growing at incredible clips -- particularly, a lot of the on-ramps, so companies like Coinbase and Kraken -- we're seeing a lot of positive growth across the industry as a whole."
Later on in the conversation, Bogart explained why he thinks it is risky to bet against Bitcoin over the next five years:
"I think it's a bolder bet or a riskier bet to say that Bitcoin will be less successful over the next five years than the past five years. I mean all the trends suggest otherwise -- whether it's that the value of transactions processed that I just discussed or whether it's actually looking at what do people think of Bitcoin.
"So, you know, we've run a survey. We ran one in Fall 2017 in the middle of a raging bull market. We ran another one in Spring 2019... It surveys more than 2,000 American adults, and we use it to gauge the general population's awareness, perception, familiarity, conviction, and propensity to purchase.
"And what we saw is over that 18-month period from Fall 2017 to Spring 2019, despite a significant market decline, the metrics were up across the board. So people are learning more about Bitcoin. They have more conviction in its future, and I would guess that there are going to be more purchasers going forward."
Riggs then asked Bogart since the retail audience seems more engaged if it was safe to assume that Bitcoin is going to be going higher from here.
"I certainly think so over any reasonable time horizon. So, we don't make any kind of investments or bets on a on a weekly or a monthly basis, but certainly over the next three years, we're very constructive on the price of Bitcoin.
"You know, one thing that's coming up in a few months is the having so to speak. So this is Bitcoin's third having. This is the rate of new issuance when it falls in half every four years. And so in May 2020 of next year, we have the next having. So the rate of new issuance falls. It's a little bit less selling pressure, and I think that's overall constructive on price."