Bitcoin Reversal Potential Continues, as Price Consolidations Sideways — Price Analysis

  • Short term trend: A sideways consolidation means little gains on the table
  • Long term trend: A strong downtrend remains, but it may be fading before our eyes

Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly candle has closed, and there are some faint signs of potential momentum building to the upside. Around $7,500 remains the price to break, if Bitcoin wants to start reversing its half-year downtrend and begin moving up.

Starting on the weekly, we see that price for the week was soundly rejected right at the start of local resistance at about $7,700, which is also near the 8 EMA. Most of the week’s price action traded between roughly $7k-7,500, with a slight uptick in volume for the week.

Still in the rangeBTC chart by TradingView

The histogram here put in a solid uptick in its bullish contracting trend, which is promising if it continues into the first week of 2020. The next bullish milestone will be closing above the 8 EMA. The EMAs are starting to get dangerously bearish, and preventing the 21 from crossing under the 55 is going to be necessary in order to avoid a seriously extended bear market.

The Bitcoin daily has been looking good, lately, with a clear bull divergence on the recent market. The current RSI level is holding above 44, although price looks to be cooling off so this may be retested again soon.

A decent daily, with many layers of support down to $6kBTC chart by TradingView

This histogram is also cooling off here, after looking like it was starting to arch up nicely. Repeated rejections out of an important 2019 resistance area threaten to halt Bitcoin’s recent moves up; but this being an important zone, it should take a while to break. Bitcoin has to hold the 21/8 EMAs here, in order to have a viable chance of breaking through support.

Finally, on the 4-hour, we first the shrinking trade volume. The histogram action also seems to be shrinking in general, and we can imagine that a consolidation period may be coming to an end. Price has generally been contracting since December 19, so we can cautiously expect this to continue a little longer, until the price range contracts even more.

ConsolidationBTC chart by TradingView

Bitcoin’s sideways price action here still represents the possibility of a reversal from the long downtrend. Some first waves up have been held pretty well, and the daily RSI shows strength building in general. We should not expect huge volatility in the short term, but a base could be being built here.

But of course, this is still framed within a general downtrend, which could turn very powerful without a broad reversal soon.

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