Bitcoin Move May Come Soon Amid Larger Downtrend — Price Analysis

  • Short term trend: Sideways chop, but larger move likely soon
  • Long term trend: Remains down.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a vicious chop season for the past week or so, since it broke below its October price range and into price territory from the 2018 bear market. On the technicals, the picture is mixed but mostly down. Low volume suggests the end of a consolidation and a larger move soon.

Still trending downBTC chart by TradingView

We start on the weekly chart, and see that the last weekly candle has managed to close above the October low of $7,470 (Coinbase chart), but still far below the 55 EMA. We note that the 8 EMA looks likely to cross under the 55 during the next trading period, which will be an important bearish indicator if it occurs: It will signal the first tangible sign of the EMA “fan” inverting bearish. Therefore, it will be important to see if and how much this cross is defended by the bulls.

We see that no divergence has been put in on the RSI, with a lower low here matching price. However, the histogram has put in the start of an arch up after an ultimately brief, bearish expansion down. Volume was lower for the week but seems mostly flat in general.

On the daily chart, we see the current trading range is above the important $7,300 and below the 21 EMA. To put it plain, it is anybody’s guess which way level Bitcoin will close beyond first. But two things we can say certainly are that volume is now quite low, which means a larger move is likely soon; and that Bitcoin is still in a broader downtrend.

Clear bounderiesBTC chart by TradingView

The RSI here gives us no clues, basically matching price action, and well below the 50% line. The histogram has started arching down after its pop up.

Finally, it is interesting to note the recent performance of Bitcoin dominance. On the wane from historically lofty levels around 72%, dominance seems to have put in a double bottom at about 67%. On the 3-day chart, the histogram has been recovering from this retreat, and has crossed back into the positive side of the range.

BTC Dominance again climbing?BTC chart by TradingView

This is perhaps surprising overall, given how well a few select altcoins have been performing lately, like MATIC. From the looks of it, we could see another attempt at the 70% area, especially if the 21 EMA holds here.

Bitcoin here is again approaching an important decision point. There has been enough downside during this downtrend to (finally) put in a reversal from the downtrend in play since the summer. But the charts aren't really telegraphing such a move. Before the end of the month, and perhaps the week, we should know if Bitcoin will enter 2020 bullish or bearish.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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Crypto Market Update for 24 February 2020: BTC, ETH, ADA, and TRX

Siamak Masnavi

This article provides an overview of how Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and TRON (TRX) have been doing over the past 24-hour period, and covers recent news that might have affected their prices (or might do so in the future).

To give you a rough idea of how well the crypto markets are doing today, 18 out of the top 20 cryptoassets (by market cap) are currently in the red (against the dollar).

All market data used in this article was taken around 10:00 UTC on 24 February 2020 from CryptoCompare, which also provided the price charts shown in this article.


BTC-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

BTC-USD is trading at $9,715. This means that the Bitcoin price has been under the $10K level since February 20. Still, Bitcoin has still managed to gain +37.60% against USD in the year-to-date (YTD) period.

As for why Bitcoin is having trouble breaking through the $10K level, one theory is that Bitcoin is currently being seen more as a "risk-on" rather a "risk-off" asset; another is that Bitcoin whales are manipulating the market.

Here is prominent crypto analyst/trader Josh Rager with some technical analysis of Bitcoin's latest price action:


ETH-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

ETH-USD is trading at $265.99. Although ETH-USD has dropped 0.92% in the past seven-day period, for the YTD period, it is up +103.37%.


ADA-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

ADA-USD set a six-month high on February 14 when it hit $0.07083. Since then, it's been going downhill.

Although the 7-day and 10-day pictures look bad, Cardano's return-on-investment (ROI) figures (against USD) for the 30-day, YTD, and 90-day periods look quite decent, being +36.99%, +76.77%, and +60.44% respectively.

On February 21, IOHK tweeted that the Cardano network had successfully carried out a scheduled network upgrade (a hard fork) to bring in Ouroboros BFT (a new consensus mechanism):


TRX-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

TRX-USD is trading at $0.0204, which means that TRON is currently the 16-th most valuable cryptoasset by reported market cap.

TRX-USD has dropped -6.35% in the past 7-day period, but so far in 2020, it is up +54.45%.

Earlier today, in an article for Coindesk, Alexander S. Blum, the Chief Operating Officer of crypto finance firm Two Prime, wrote:

"Viewed through the lens of traditional finance, TRON is acting pretty predictably. It is acquiring more market share through the acquisition of weakened competitors, like BitTorrent, and their networks while promoting their retail financial product. They’re performing a balancing act between being a financial product and a technical one...

"Justin is leading TRON as a for-profit business pretty well. Why does that irk many hardcore developers? For those in the Western world sticking up their noses at TRON, it’s worth reflecting on how deeply elitist it is to judge from a position of pure technical idealism...

"The emergence of TRON in highly competitive Asian markets is commendable. They are pioneering a new business model and creating wealth ex nihilo – out of thin air – because they focus on what works today. Their users share the company’s pragmatism. TRON, EOS and Ripple are pioneering community-centric financial products that offer exciting new models for wealth creation."

Featured Image by "AhmadArdity" via