A bitcoin analyst has applied logarithmic regression to predict that crypto could reach an $11 trillion market capitalization by 2023.
According to the analysis published on YouTube, Benjamin Cowen explained to viewers how crypto’s market cap is on pace to grow into the trillions over the next several years.
You guys requested it and here it is! Projected market cap of the entire #crypto asset class throughout another market cycle using logarithmic regression. A theoretical max of ~$11.5T.https://t.co/DEBHABzmDi pic.twitter.com/KU1MHNHJmm— intothecryptoverse (@intocryptoverse) December 22, 2019
From its peak in 2014 of $13 billion, the crypto markets grew to over $800 billion at the end of 2017, representing a 63-fold increase. Using a similar trend looking at jumps from market peaks dating back to 2010, Cowen finds the most bullish prediction would be for total market capitalization to reach $32 trillion by 2023.
However, the analyst calls the most optimistic scenario unlikely, saying “I don’t think we are going to come close to reaching [$32 trillion].” Cowen finds it unlikely that the market will continue to grow at the exponential rate of previous jumps and instead comes to the more conservative figure of $11 trillion by 2023.
Cowen said of the prediction,
If we continue to investigate this, it would actually be a 112x ROI on the [previous market bottom]. So it kind of makes sense from 768x to 233x to 112x were we are getting lower on our ROI and that’s what we would expect. We would expect each ROI from market bottom to get lower and lower.
Assuming the crypto markets follow his data trend, Cowen predicts the price of BTC could reach $141,000 within the next several years.
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