Bull hopes for a newly uptrending Bitcoin (BTC) are slowly fading, as more and more red ink is put on the charts. We take a look at the latest weekly closing, and the short answer is: Not good. But there's hope, at least for a relief rally.
Starting on the weekly chart with EMA, we see that Bitcoin has closed well below the 21 EMA, and was hardly caught by the 34 EMA. Things are not a complete disaster – yet – for the leading crypto, as a distance from the 55 EMA has been respected. It was October’s major accomplishment to hold the 55 EMA, which served as a base for the October 25 launch up to $10.6k.
Otherwise, we see the 8 EMA has recrossed down under the 21, with the 13 about to follow. This is profile looks increasingly bearish, and the October 25 surge looking ever more like a bull trap than a reversal.
On another weekly chart, the two indicators to note are the volume and histogram. First, despite the healthy red candle to the downside, there was quite low trade volume for the week; on the Coinbase exchange, for example, it was actually the lowest weekly trade volume since March 2019, at about 40,000 bitcoin traded. Same for Gemini (pictured), at 4.7k bitcoin. This low sell volume somewhat responds to the bearish narrative, and suggests that perhaps sell pressure is ebbing.
The histogram, however, does look pretty bearish, with a stark tick down locked in, and a clear disruption of what could have been forming bullish momentum. Finally, we see that the weekly chart’s main line of support will find bottom at about $8,270. This level is holding, currently.
However, if we come way in, to the 4-hour chart, we might find some cause for optimism. Here we find a falling wedge pattern, and a lengthy series of bull divergences. We can see that, indeed, volume is very low here, suggesting that sell pressure has abated.
The “golden pocket” Fibonacci area has also been hotly defended with each attempt to break it. This critical area of the retracement scale is often the place where support comes in to defend an asset; and if support continues to hold here, it could be a base for a bounce. Finally, we can see that the histogram is largely trendless and choppy, indicating how contentious the Bitcoin market is now.
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