Bitcoin (BTC) is back below $8,000, going as low as $7,875 in the last hours, after yesterday being rejected from a feeble attempted breakout from the local bottom. This is the last area of support for Bitcoin within the local market structure, and the hopes of a reversal into a new uptrend now look all but lost. The leading crypto absolutely must hold here, or else risk continuing a huge downtrend into 2020.
Starting with a medium term 12-hour chart, we see the entire local market structure formed by the October low and surge up to $10,350. A retracement from that high has turned into a general and unrelenting downtrend, plowing through every Fibonacci level all the way to 0.786.
We can see that Bitcoin has now entered the support zone from October, and is now in a similar situation as it was a month ago. The key difference we might notice here is that volume on this downtrend has been generally lower in November than during October’s choppy market.
If we look on the 12-hour indicators, we see that if price can actually hold here, it will form a hidden bull divergence on the RSI (a lower low on RSI with a higher low on price) during the September-November period, suggesting the feeble uptrend started on October 25 can continue. This suggestion would probably be formed within a giant-bear-trap theory.
Otherwise, on the histogram, we see that a higher low has been put in during the November downtrend, forming a general bull divergence in momentum.
Finally, moving in to the 4-hour chart, we see that Bitcoin had been very diligently held below the 8 EMA. Yesterday, as an attempt came in to finally close above the 8 and perhaps establish a toehold of an uptrend, aggressive selling came in to tamp down on this attempt and push BTC back below the 8 for the candle close. The bears put in work here, and that paved the way for the current collapse to under $8k.
If price can hold here, however, and start to form a bottom, we could get a bull divergence on the RSI. But that’s a big “if”: Sell volume has been pretty high here, with the current four hour candle almost on par with Monday’s four-hour sell candle after only two hours. The histogram looks bad, with an arch down viciously dropping off with today’s movement.
Things look bad for Bitcoin. This seems like the eleventh hour for the local market structure. If support doesn’t come in now, we could see a return to the low 7’s or worse heading into 2020.
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