According to data from CryptoCompare, on Thursday (November 21), between 08:30 UTC and 08:40 UTC, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $8,000 for the first time since October 25:
The Bitcoin price kept falling, and by 10:11 UTC, it had reached $7,916, meaning that (at the time of writing) Bitcoin is down 2.11% in the past 24-hour period:
That was the bad news.
The good news is that prominent macro economist and crypto analyst/trader Alex Krüger believes that, despite what you may have heard, "the market is a long long way from miner capitulation."
In a post on Twitter around 16:51 UTC yesterday (November 20), Krüger explained that although miner capitulation could happen "eventually" we are nowhere near that point since the Bitcoin hash rate has only dropped 4% recently:
Miner capitulation makes sense.— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 20, 2019
The market is a long long way from miner capitulation.
Hash tells you that story.
In 2018, the hashrate 10 day moving average dropped 32% in a month.
The October peak to December bottom drop was 35%.
It has only dropped 4% now. pic.twitter.com/uNEqMfmyRy
Yesterday, John Pfeffer, Founder of Pfeffer Capital, Travis Kling, Founder and CIO of Ikigai Asset Management, and Charles McGarraugh, Head of Markets for Blockchain discussed the outlook for Bitcoin with Bloomberg's Alastair Marsh at The Future of Digital Assets briefing in London.
Marsh started the discussion by asking the panel if they agreed with the idea that in the current macroeconomic environment the narrative of Bitcoin as a macro hedge is especially strong.
"Yeah, I totally buy into that idea.I think that it's a great idea... Bitcoin is awesome because your property rights are an operational fact of possessing the private key rather than the jurisdictional artifact of recourse to a legal system that may or may not re-trade you at some future date."
Update at 11:36 UTC on November 21:
Around 11:21 UTC, Alex Krüger took to Twitter again, this time to explain under what scenario he could envision miner capitulation in the medium term:
If miners were to continue increasing capacity at the pace they have had since May, without prices moving higher, market is likely to experience some sort of miner capitulation in coming months, either before the halving, or triggered by the halving.— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 21, 2019
That is ahead of us. At present there has been increased miner selling, yet this selling activity does not represent capitulation of any kind, as most miners are profitable given current prices and difficulty, particularly so on a cash basis (i.e. ignoring capex depreciation).— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) November 21, 2019
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