A strong relief bounce has come in for Bitcoin (BTC) after its breakdown from the previous October market structure. It remains to be seen whether this bounce is strong enough to finally break the Bitcoin downtrend that has been driving price down since July; but meanwhile, altcoin market share is continuing to grow versus Bitcoin, which was recently pushed back below the historically high 70% mark. This has translated lately into many altcoin surges.
OKEx’s exchange token OKB took a nasty tumble in the past two weeks, riding Bitcoin’s tail down for almost 50% loss in USD value. This is because OKB/BTC has followed Bitcoin itself, moving down *with* it, in a behavior that is typical of altcoins – very few have been lately moving inversely to Bitcoin. OKB’s fiat losses are thus multiplied by BTC’s losses versus fiat.
Looking at a 3-day OKB/USD chart, we can see the aggressive selloff that has taken place. This selloff unfortunately took out an important price zone at $2.40, and with it an obvious uptrend. Price was held in previous resistance and a strong buy wick has pushed it back up.
OKB chart by Charts.Cointrader.Pro
This chart looks pretty similar to Bitcoin’s; and thus, like with Bitcoin, OKB/USD may have entered a downtrend. But the very strong defense wick that came in at around $1.77 to push the candle back up says otherwise.
We don’t see any strong divergence on the daily RSI (it is too close to call), but the histogram is strongly contracting up at present. Most of this price action is Bitcoin-driven, so we also have to take a look at the OKB/BTC charts to get an idea of what’s going on.
Looking on a daily OKB/BTC chart, we see a slightly better picture than versus USD – although even here, we could see a rejection at the support recently lost. It is slightly better because the broader uptrend is still preserved, with a possible hidden bullish divergence suggesting it could continue.
OKB chart by Charts.Cointrader.Pro
But OKB here is also facing resistance again at previous resistance, and at the EMAs. The histogram is trending up flat, which means it could easily start expanding again and take the exchange token back down. At any rate, we should know soon which way OKB will pick.
And then there’s Bitcoin. Currently in the midst of a well-needed and expected relief pump, Bitcoin still has a long way to go to prove that its downtrend – in play since the summer – is over.
On the daily, we can see that Bitcoin has succeeded in reentering the just-lost previous market structure, at $7,300; and with it, cleared the first Fibonacci retracement level. But only after retaking the 0.382 level, lying at about $8k, can we start to consider this surge as having a chance to reverse the larger downtrend that has taken hold.
The RSI here was deeply oversold, but we will likely have to see a retest of the bottom of the zone to start claiming a bottom – and we’re nowhere near that. The histogram, meanwhile, is contracting up gently, which is slightly bullish. With this reading, we could make it to $8,000 before stronger selling.
Finally, the leading altcoin Ethereum (ETH), has been typical of altcoins in that it too has followed Bitcoin’s lead – even versus the Bitcoin trading pair. And of course, this has resulted in a multiplied Bitcoin price action, essentially.
On the ETH/USD daily, we see Ethereum mostly in the same boat as Bitcoin. It has taken out a very important support zone, ending at about $155, from earlier in the year when it first broke free from the 2018 bear consolidation zone. The altcoin is retesting that level now, fro the bottom, but it will be a tall order to retake it now amid a general high-cap downtrend.
Just as with Bitcoin, the RSI has taken one deep trip into oversold territory, but it will probably need another trip down and/or a higher low to start looking like a stabile local bottom. It has already almost reached the next support at $130.
On the ETH/BTC chart, we can see the steep drop starting November 20, just when Bitcoin really accelerated to the downside. We also see that a likely consolidation triangle is approaching its end – and indeed, may soon break to the downside. We see a histogram that wants to contract up, and push price action into the blue triangle. But likewise, a retest of the blue support below is very possible: Ethereum’s long journey to finding a new bottom on this trading pair seems to never end.
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