Ethereum Having Trouble Getting Over the Top In Breakout Scenario - Price Analysis

  • Short term: breakout/rejection scenario -- there will be a trade one way or another
  • Long term: likely long term uptrend in play on BTC pairing

Since early September, Ethereum (ETH) has been in an uptrend. When Bitcoin (BTC) broke down last month, Ethereum also took a big hit, but recovered and continued gaining -- until hitting a key resistance zone within its market structure. Now, pushing against this resistance, we are seeing ETH struggle to break through.

Starting on the daily ETH/BTC, we can clearly see the importance of this zone, around ₿0.0224. A few solid days of buying pushed the leading altcoin to this point, despite coming off of a clear bear divergence on the RSI -- most likely a consequence of Bitcoin’s violent dump and its effect on almost all altcoins.

Right on the lineETH chart by TradingView

Coming down to an 8-hour chart, we see a mixed picture of strength and weakness at the resistance level. The RSI performance is solid, with a higher high matching the latest price peak. The histogram, however, looks troublesome here, arching down hard on this candle at time of writing.

A fightETH chart by TradingView

We must also notice, however, that Ethereum’s histogram has been very choppy lately, which is visible on this chart. Sharp reversals have caused a scattered sawtooth pattern across the indicator, so we must take a bearish reading here with a grain of salt.

On the daily ETH/USD chart, we see something less than an uptrend like on the BTC pairing. Rather, we see either what looks like the middle or end of a downtrend. It isn’t certain; but what is certain is that the histogram looks to be rolling over after having a nice pop yesterday, inflated by Bitcoin’s own pop.

The $190 level is key hereETH chart by TradingView

This brought Ethereum over a critical resistance at $190, and over the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). But this breakout is still very shaky, owing both to Bitcoin’s own shakiness, and to ETH/BTCs waning strength. We could easily see ETH roll over on this chart to lower supports.

In sum, Ethereum is on the edge of a resistance zone and could go either way. Its BTC pairing is bogged down at a resistance, but could easily blow through it with a bit more buying support. Likewise, there are some signs that that chart is losing steam. Then there’s the question of what Bitcoin will do today -- and how it will affect Ethereum (three weeks ago, ETH/BTC dumped when Bitcoin dumped; but yesterday, ETH/BTC pumped when Bitcoin pumped). We should know soon.

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