Ethereum Slides Against BTC No Matter What It Does - Price Analysis

  • Short term: canny traders could scalp a relief rally after the latest dump
  • Long term: the interminable question to find a bottom continues -- no strong signs

Even as Bitcoin (BTC) continues looking solid on a high timeframe (HTF), the leading altcoin Ethereum (ETH) continues to be outperformed and slide - interminably - against it. It seems that Ethereum now dumps both when Bitcoin pumps, and when it dumps. ETH/BTC has been in a steep correcting for months, capitulating into price territory not seen in years (yes, plural).

Illustrating this vexing trend, we see a 4-hour Ethereum chart compared to Bitcoin’s price (bottom). The red arrow marks ETH’s reaction to a Bitcoin selloff, while the blue one marks ETH’s reaction to yesterday’s Bitcoin bounce. Whereas Ethereum has more typically traded inversely to Bitcoin, these days it is not respecting this tendency.

Bitcoin pumps, eth dumps; bitcoin dumps, eth dumps.ETH chart by TradingView

We see that Ethereum has lost the support zone surrounding ₿0.0176, which it had been wrestling with based on local price action.

We can see this level better on the daily, and we must note the absence of clear signs of any recovery. Having broken the most recent attempt at a support, a new low put in soon could result in a bullish divergence on the RSI, but this has not happened yet.

Not a bull div yet but could doETH chart by TradingView

In general, ETH is trending through a huge band of 2017-era support (we’ll return to this) as it tries to find solid buy support.

If we look on a weekly chart, we see the huge support region that ETH is trending within. It is likely to find support somewhere within this range; the problem is, there is still 50% more downside in this range. Time will tell if Ethereum ever returns to its previous (price) glory.

In the soupETH chart by TradingView

Finally, moving to a USD-paired chart, we see that ETH/USD is about to execute a “death cross” on the daily chart. This is commonly considered to be when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses down over the 200-day SMA, although there are other timeframes used.

A weak death cross ...ETH chart by TradingView

But we can also see that the angle of crossover is becoming more acute. Crosses are not set in stone, and they sometimes do not result in what they portend. This weak cross may end up just faking back to the upside.

And if we look at the indicators, the RSI is stabilizing, if not diverging bullishly from price; and the same goes for the MACD which as at least halted its decent. More than anything, Ethereum just looks quiet: there are hardly any trading to speak of compared to historic levels. Which makes this “death cross,” which is not coming after a shocking price explosion relative to the coin’s history, land a little flat.

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