It’s the usual story with Ethereum (ETH). Late June’s local market top has still not found a price floor for its correction, as the leading crypto still deals with the cutting price drop to levels not seen in years.
We start with the weekly ETH/USD chart. The leading altcoin recently broke below the important $200 zone, which now serves as resistance. The candle that closed yesterday was dwarfed by the prior week’s red candle, which doesn’t fill us with confidence of a price reversal. Price has actually closed just within the “golden pocket” after briefly losing it last week.
Volume here was flat, although we do see a good sign in the histogram which has begun to flatten out. The weekly indicators are hard to move one way or the other, so a reversal here next week could signal a trend change.
One the weekly ETH/BTC pairing chart, we see the familiar bottom-finding period that Ethereum has been churning through for some time. The histogram here looks okay, ticking up and heading up to possibly cross positive soon. The RSI on this timeframe, however, is still pretty grim after recently setting the lowest low on record since December 2015 (Bittrex chart).
If we move to the 2-day ETH/BTC chart, however, we could be forgiven for seeing a few signs of possible strength. Price has here been contained by the 9 exponential moving average (EMA), so we’re looking for a close above that. Buy volume, with 12 hours left in the candle and already at par with the previous period, should outstrip the prior bar's.
As for the indicators, we see a healthy tick up on the histogram. The RSI has also clearly put in a bullish divergence from recent price lower-lows. If signs like this keep popping up, we could well see the start of a floor and reversal for the leading altcoin from its historic correction (some would say capitulation).
If we shrink down to the 4-hour for a short term view, we actually see some decent volatility and perhaps short term trading opportunity. Price has spiked in recent days and is now approaching overbought levels on the RSI. However, the histogram looks pretty healthy, arcing back up within positive territory.
If price can put in a high respective to the previous peak, it could accord with the higher RSI performance; but likewise, a failure to put in a higher high would look like a hidden bear divergence.
It’s news to no one now that altcoins have been wrecked both when Bitcoin does well, and when it doesn’t. And Ethereum, as perhaps the strongest signal of the altcoin market, has demonstrated that better than anything else. As we head into the last leg of 2019, we still can’t say that Ethereum has found strong buy support - and that’s simply the fact.
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