Ethereum Holding Up Well During Cool-Off Period - Price Analysis

  • Short term: Well set up for another leg up.
  • Long term: Good chance of a reversal from the lows, but cannot call it confirmed yet.

In early September, Ethereum’s (ETH) price started a nice uptrend off of lows not seen in years on its ETH/BTC trading pair. This uptrend topped out on September 19, and has since been taking some time to correct. During this leg down, sell pressure seems to be light -- and this may suggest another leg up soon.

Starting with the 12-hour ETH/BTC chart, we see that the depth of the present period of retracement has been quite shallow. On the Fibonacci retracement overlay, anything above 0.382 is quite a modest retracement, and we see here that ETH has not even tested this level.

Modest retracementETH chart by TradingView

No strong selling has come in so far. Of course, this may change, and a greater selloff may materialize in the coming days or even weeks.

The obvious question is, then: is the retrace over with? Looking at a 4-hour chart with a MACD indicator, we see that price has held within local support. We also see the histogram arcing up with increasing intensity on this medium-term timeframe.

Can it hold above support?ETH chart by TradingView

However, even if the histogram can make it back to the positive side, it probably will only stay there briefly on this timeframe. ETH will probably need another, more shallow histogram dip to call an end to its retracement.

If we look on the USD side of things, on the 8-hour timeframe, we can see that Ethereum is being supported just above $200, where support was found in August of 2019. Here, the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) has held the leading altcoin, and closing below it might signal an early warning of more downside.

21 EMA on 8h is our warning bellETH chart by TradingView

But again, here, we see very little interest on the part of sellers. The range around $210 is now the principal area to watch.

We must make mention of Bitcoin (BTC) here, which is nearing the end of an extensive consolidation. It has only been due to Bitcoin’s placid behavior lately, presumably, that altcoins have been able to get a bump. It is reasonable to expect that, the longer Bitcoin is boring, the more runway alts will have to make their own moves. Another move up for Ethereum is probably contingent on a calm Bitcoin -- which probably won't last much longer.

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