Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing in its not very interesting grind of a consolidation, and is predictably retesting the $10,000 mark. This level seems to be the inflection point of what has become an extensive ranging and price consolidation after the late-June run to $14,000. We will likely see Bitcoin reach the bottom of its range in the mid $9,000’s before long.
Starting on the daily chart, we see the limits of Bitcoin’s current, shrinking range. Yesterday’s candle closed below the clutch of exponential moving averages (EMAs) that were grouped together, although the sell volume on this red day was paltry.
Buyers have stepped in to try and float Bitcoin at $10,000 for the nth time in this consolidation period. But we can reasonably expect that BTC will soon break this and retest the bottom of its range, at least $9,500.
Looking at the 4-hour indicators, we can see that strength has been ebbing on the RSI, with lower highs and lows - although it is so choppy that we are hard pressed to determine the peaks and lows at all.
The histogram has been stuck on the negative side of the scale for several days, as the MACD continues trending down also into negative territory. We do however see a some upticking action, and a general abatement in sell pressure that is corroborating by the very weak sell volume even as price falls. What’s more, price has been held at the “golden pocket” 0.618-5 Fibonacci range
In this light, things may not be quite so boring as they seem. If Bitcoin can hold here in the middle of the range, we might see a bounce back to the top of the consolidation range without first visiting the bottom. This could serve as a bit of evidence as to which way the leading crypto might eventually break out of this pattern.
We can see on this 2-day chart the basic options for Bitcoin that are looming in the short term, and if price starts to stick to one side or another of the pattern - likely a descending triangle - we might have some early warning as to which way price will go.
Of course, this is preemptive speculation. The only real evidence we have to go off so far is that Bitcoin has not broken any levels that would take it out of its general, grand uptrend - implying that price will break up with the larger trend. However, descending triangles are generally considered bearish. Bitcoin has recently been held at the 61 EMA on the 2-day, and if it can hold here again and stay away from the bottom of the triangle, perhaps we can call it something other than a descending triangle.
Day by day, we draw closer to renewed volatility - this is the only sure thing.
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