Chainlink Likely to Continue Downtrend for a While - Price Analysis

Chainlink (LINK) was one of the star performing altcoins of H1 2019, surging from less than $100 million of market capitalization at the start of the year to well over a billion dollars (briefly) in July. The oracle crypto has been, understandably, correcting quite a bit since that parabolic runup,

We start with a weekly LINK/BTC chart to get the lay of the land. LINK has retraced as much as 54% since July, from all time highs. Trade volume has been consistently dropping.

Will it hold 21 EMA?LINK chart by TradingView

Price has been held lately at the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), but has at present taken out that level. The correction has also taken out the important 0.618-65 Fibonacci retracement level - but on both counts, price has not closed the week out below either of these important levels.

Moving to the daily, we note the band of support at about 15k satoshis, which represents the chart’s main inflection point and the price peak from January 2019, which took a while to break in May.

Indicators mostly neutral hereLINK chart by TradingView

There may be a chance for a double bottom here, although the RSI is not showing increased strength. Volume is essentially asleep, and the MACD is pointing down after a small up-cycle. The histogram seems to be ticking back to the downside at a slightly accelerating rates.

If we draw a more general band of support from recent limits, we see that LINK is already making contact with support. It seems likely that LINK will eventually find support somewhere in this range, which has about 20% worth of downside to go.

This thick support will likely holdLINK chart by TradingView

The previous uptrend, however, is clearly broken and not likely to rebound soon.

Finally, on the LINK/USD(T) 2-day chart, we see a similar picture but with slightly worse-looking indicators. The histogram here is definitely accelerating to the downside at this time, with the MACD looking straight down. RSI has crossed over into the depressed bottom half of the range, after holding out since late July.

Rough indicatorsLINK chart by TradingView

Ultimately, the portrait here is one of mid-retrace. LINK looks like it has a while left to go, to stabilize after its parabolic runup. A bottom to the retrace looks nowhere yet in sight, although the strong inflection support seems like a good place for a bottom to eventually be found.

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