At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is fighting to hold its new toehold just at $12,000, after an exceptional bounce from $9,400 in early August. Time will tell if Bitcoin will break full bullish again now, but the long term uptrend is very much intact either way - and that seems unlikely to change during 2019.
Altcoins, however, have been committing veritable suicide during July, with little changing as we head into August. Some cryptos, like XRP and Ether (ETH) have seen eye-watering new lows on the Bitcoin trading pair. Litecoin, with its halving now complete, has been doing a little better after correcting from local highs in April. The last Litecoin halving was quite a bumpy ride, and the silver crypto has lost about 20% versus Bitcoin already in August.
Not all altcoins have been getting slaughtered, however, and OKEx’s proprietary OKB token is definitely one of them.
Looking at this 3-day chart, we note that OKB/BTC has had great success in reclaiming some lost territory after a double bottom in June-July. It has held this area near ₿0.00030, which has resulted in significant gains on the USD side. However, the falling volume here is some subject of concern.
Looking at the daily chart and indicators, we have some reason to be cautious about OKB. The indicators have taken a southward tack since late July. The RSI has been trending down on the daily, with lower highs and lows - although the recent low was less low than the previous. Same story on MACD/histogram: MACD has crossed bearish but looks to be curling back up for a potential re-cross; and the histogram has crossed down bearish but looks to be downticking less intensely.
Price has held through, impressively, and if the indicators can stabilize and point back north while price holds here, OKB could easily climb to the next level at ₿0.00035. If not, a higher low would also be acceptable.
The silver crypto (silver to Bitcoin’s gold) has successfully halved its block reward only, at time of writing, about a day ago. LTC has been taking a nasty tumble since the month started, though, predictably as Bitcoin began its most recent leg up.
Litecoin has been in general trying to find a bottom for quite some time. Although not being completely “rekt” like some other altcoins, the silver crypto has tumbled since peaking in June. And this downtrend is perhaps not over.
Looking at the 2-day chart, we see the high timeframe (HTF) indicators still flashing red. The histogram is still ticking scarily down toward the negative side; the RSI would have a nice bull divergence here, if price reverses now - but that’s a big if.
Although history does not repeat but merely rhymes, let’s take a look at … history. The last Litecoin halving, in August of 2015, was preceded by a huge price runup and subsequent dump, followed by a smaller dump right during the halving event. After that, price (in BTC terms) kept steadily falling.
With half the reward, miners should - efficiently, anyway - only keep mining if they anticipate the asset’s price to rise in future. If we just look at the price versus Bitcoin, it took Litecoin about one and a half years to stop falling. Eep.
The leading smart contract altcoin, ETH, has been no barrel of delicious cherries lately, either. Versus BTC, Ether’s decline during 2019 has been pretty shocking: after first retesting and then breaking long historical support, it has carved now into multi-year support dating all the way to 2017 - and has still been unable to find vigorous buy support.
This 2017 band of support is itself barely holding, and the ETH daily indicators look nasty with little sign of support or buy volume. The RSI daily trend line has been broken, although there are some slightly more encouraging signs on the higher timeframe indicators - barely. Only expert scalpers and long term value investors would be buying at this time.
Finally, the leading crypto has been going through a period of consolidation since reaching local highs ($14k) in June not far away from all time highs.
BTC is, at time of writing (covered more in-depth here) having a bit of drama as it stands on the brink of breaking out - and up - through that consolidating structure. Briefly climbing above $12,000, which is the critical mark, it has since a couple hours ago been rejected and is battling to maintain presence in the breakout area itself.
If we take the channel seriously, Bitcoin could take quite a tumble if it does not manage to break out here. But likewise, there are several support areas would could catch the leading crypto to form a higher low. Even maintaining the 33-day EMA would be a major success, as this is an important 2019 level that had held Bitcoin’s uptrend until mid-July.
All in all, Bitcoin is still doing very well. No damage to its long term prospects has come, and we could easily see new all time highs soon - especially if $12,000 is retaken and held for any length of time. Even if it’s not, we would need quite a lot of downside to get bearish long term.
As for the altcoins, most of them are drowning to death. Bitcoin dominance continues to rise (now at nearly 70%), and most of them have been unable to find any long term bottoms - even if some are flirting with the idea.
The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.