Bitcoin Breaks $12k, Market Structure - Price Analysis

  • Short term: caution advised until a breakout above $12k is confirmed
  • Long term: strong uptrend remains intact

After a straight shot up from $9,400, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be back on full throttle in its uptrend, after retaking all key resistances and breaking the local market structure.

Starting on the 4-hour chart, we see that price has continued to plow into overbought levels on the indicators. The RSI here will probably end up peaking out with just a slightly lower high, which may presage a retest of the newly taken levels.

Low timeframe starting to lose some strengthBTC chart by TradingView

Volume is doing well on the push past $12,000 (Bitstamp), although more would be better to secure a position above the cardinal price level - and seems to be flagging after one of four hours of trading. The RSI looks likely to put in a higher low, so a retest of the breakout zone may come. A successful retest of this area would be very bullish.

Turning to the 12-hour chart, we see that Bitcoin is in the process of breaking out of a parallel channel which has contained the local market since late June. Bitcoin now has the critical task of proving its longevity outside of this structure.

Break of market structureBTC chart by Trading View

Here, we should note that the volume trend, at least on this chart, remains intact and trending down. The current volume bar looks unlikely to break this trend, having only three hours (of 12) of trading left at time of writing.

Looking at the 12-hour indicators, however, we see a really strong picture.

Beautiful indicatorsBTC chart by Trading View

The RSI is putting in higher lows and highs, and bullishly diverging from the most recent price peak. The histogram is ticking up with no loss of trend - it’s not arcing down - and the MACD averages are fully fanned up and out. This is a vigorous picture of health

We finally turn to the all-important daily chart, and here we see that the volume trend has been broken on this chart - and on the bellwether Coinbase exchange to boot. Seven days of gains have been painted on this chart, with today making a possible eighth.

A daily close will above $12k go a long wayBTC chart by Trading View

The trick will be to close the day above $12,000, and with an equal or stronger volume showing versus yesterday. This would give strong encouragement to the idea that, not only is the Bitcoin retracement over with $9,000 as the bottom; but also that a return to the uptrend on both high and low timeframes is at hand.

In summation, the more time spent above $12,000, the more conviction we can have in a structure break and renewed uptrend. And if it does not hold, there are several important levels below $12k to snag Bitcoin on the way down.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.