Bitcoin Again on the Backfoot, Against the $10k Wall - Price Analysis

  • Short term: critical period, no trend
  • Long term: uptrend intact, although a breakdown here will force reinspection of levels

Bitcoin (BTC) is again revisiting $10,000 for the third time in August, toward the end of what seems like a consolidation pattern for the leading crypto. Whether it will hold here, again, is an open question,

We start on the 4-hour chart, and see that the support block from mid-August has bought up yesterday’s selloff. Volume on both the selloff and the catch have been small, as Bitcoin processes through a consolidation pattern that looks ready to start shaking out by end-August.

Again at $10k after easy rejectionBTC chart by TradingView

The moving averages (MAs) have been left behind again. If we look at the 4-hour indicators, we see the RSI stabilizing, and the MACD broadcasting an arc back toward the upside. But no real strong signals are here, including the limp volume on both buy and sell sides.

4-hour indicators say littleBTC chart by TradingView

However, if we take our reading down to the 2-hour indicators, things look slightly more favorable. RSI on this timeframe is diverging bullish versus price, and the MACD/histogram is clearly arcing back to green territory and looks about to cross over.

Some strength on 2-hourBTC chart by TradingView

Based on this low timeframe (LTF) reading, we might expect Bitcoin to not leave its consolidation pattern here, to the downside; we could expect another small bounce back to the (ever-shrinking) top of the pattern. But this is nowhere guaranteed.

Stepping back to the daily for the bigger picture, we see that one of two scenarios is probably playing out. The general retreat in volume (although it had started growing in August again) looks like consolidation, but of which pattern: a sideways triangle, or a falling channel?

BTC against the floor of the uptrendBTC chart by TradingView

Price does seem to be crowding the bottom of the triangle pattern. If it breaks down here, we will then look to the $8,000’s for support.

There is no way to know until it happens, but the market seems tepid at best. LTF indicators are not bad, but volume is apathetic (if not pathetic!). Buyers have to step in to support $10,000 again, if they want to avoid a breakdown. It is important to note, however, that neither outcome will damage the larger Bitcoin uptrend - and if we break down to $8,000, we will revisit this question.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

New Record $8.9 Billion Worth of Bitcoin Moved in One Hour

Francisco Memoria

A total of $8.9 billion worth of bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, have been moved in a single hour earlier today, marking the highest hourly USD transaction volume in cryptocurrency history.

Despite the record-breaking transaction volume bitcoin’s price remains relatively stagnant, falling about 2% in the last 24-hour period to 7,300, after recovering from a low of $7,100 it saw yesterday. The low was hit shortly after a pump failed to maintain momentum to reach the $8,000.

According to Rafael Schultze-Kraft, cofounder of the on-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode, the record-breaking transaction volume turned out to not be something too exciting, as the moving BTC was associated to wallets belonging to cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex.

The transactions coincided with the exchange’s downtime, which means it could simply be moving around coins to improve its cold wallet security, or to improve its internal organization and coin management.

In total, Bittrex moved 1.18 million bitcoin, worth around $8.9 billion, over a series of 21 transactions. Each transaction moved around 56,000 bitcoin, or roughly $409 million worth of cryptocurrency. Each transaction had a fee close to $0.60, which means Bittrex moved nearly $9 billion and broke the record for the highest on-chain transaction volume in the cryptocurrency space for less than $12.5.

Overall, the transactions aren’t expected to affect bitcoin’s price, as internal movements aren’t associated with a large deposit or withdrawal – which means there shouldn’t be increased selling pressure or reduced supply because of them.

Featured image via Unsplash.