Bitcoin (BTC) is again revisiting $10,000 for the third time in August, toward the end of what seems like a consolidation pattern for the leading crypto. Whether it will hold here, again, is an open question,
We start on the 4-hour chart, and see that the support block from mid-August has bought up yesterday’s selloff. Volume on both the selloff and the catch have been small, as Bitcoin processes through a consolidation pattern that looks ready to start shaking out by end-August.
The moving averages (MAs) have been left behind again. If we look at the 4-hour indicators, we see the RSI stabilizing, and the MACD broadcasting an arc back toward the upside. But no real strong signals are here, including the limp volume on both buy and sell sides.
However, if we take our reading down to the 2-hour indicators, things look slightly more favorable. RSI on this timeframe is diverging bullish versus price, and the MACD/histogram is clearly arcing back to green territory and looks about to cross over.
Based on this low timeframe (LTF) reading, we might expect Bitcoin to not leave its consolidation pattern here, to the downside; we could expect another small bounce back to the (ever-shrinking) top of the pattern. But this is nowhere guaranteed.
Stepping back to the daily for the bigger picture, we see that one of two scenarios is probably playing out. The general retreat in volume (although it had started growing in August again) looks like consolidation, but of which pattern: a sideways triangle, or a falling channel?
Price does seem to be crowding the bottom of the triangle pattern. If it breaks down here, we will then look to the $8,000’s for support.
There is no way to know until it happens, but the market seems tepid at best. LTF indicators are not bad, but volume is apathetic (if not pathetic!). Buyers have to step in to support $10,000 again, if they want to avoid a breakdown. It is important to note, however, that neither outcome will damage the larger Bitcoin uptrend – and if we break down to $8,000, we will revisit this question.
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