In episode #129 of Laura Shin’s “Unchained” podcast, which was released on Tuesday (July 23), Dan Morehead, founder, Co-CIO, and CEO of blockchain-focused investment firm Pantera Capital Management LP (“Pantera Capital”), gave his predictions for the Bitcoin (BTC) price.
Morehead’s comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.
Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a “proxy” for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up.
At his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.
Next, Morehead said that if we graph the price of Bitcoin logarithmically (“to take away the crazy exponential growth”), we will notice “a typically consistent line”.
He then added:
“At the beginning of this year, when we were at the trough of the crypto winter, we graphed what it would be like if Bitcoin spent the next 12 months getting back to its trend line, and then from there out, just stayed at its trend. And it’s trend has been to grow at 235% compound annual growth rate–at the time, Bitcoin was $3,000-$4,000. That put Bitcoin at $42,000 by the end of 2019, which I know sounds crazy. But essentially, we are half-way back there. It’s right on the trend line. I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit that. And then if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin, and in one more year, it’s $356,000.”
On Wednesday (July 24), Pantera Capital sent out the following tweet to show the graph that Morehead was talking about:
We initially published this forecast in January ($3,700/BTC) using pricing data from Dec '10 thru Dec '18. During that time, bitcoin grew at a 235% CAGR.
If #bitcoin reverts to its long-term trend by end of:
— Pantera Capital (@PanteraCapital) July 24, 2019