Ether Is Stable But Bottom May Not Yet Be In - Price Analysis

When we last spoke of Ethereum (ETH), it was showing some signs of forming a bottom after its vicious capitulation in mid-July to lows (versus BTC) not seen since 2017. Now in the penultimate day of July, a cautious optimism is not inappropriate for the leading altcoin - very cautious.

We’ll start with the monthly, which will close in less than two days. This chart still looks terrible, with a red candle body even bigger than last month’s. Volume here, almost entirely selling, has tapered off a little - but only a little.

Really nasty monthly(source: TradingView.com)

Moving to the weekly chart, we see that support at ₿0.0213 marked a local bottom for the pair of weeks. Buy volume last week, however, was rather disappointing and not even enough to match the prior week’s.

Histogram really turning around(source: TradingView.com)

The histogram is perhaps the success story on this chart, with a significant reversal in trend latent on the three weekly closes. If this reversal trend continues, perhaps ETH could soon retest the 9-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Moving down to the daily chart, we get our first real clues that strength is possibly coming in. A clear bull divergence is visible on the recent RSI/price history. A for a week now, price has managed to maintain above the 9 EMA.

Definitely some promise on this chart - but volume is missing(source: TradingView.com)

Volume, however, remains a big problem - in that there is hardly any of it. Retaking the 21 EMA is the obvious next step, but ETH probably won’t get there without some more volume.

Daily histogram needs another boost(source: TradingView.com)

Looking at a detailed MACD/histogram chart, we see that strength here is starting to ebb. Histogram has begun ticking down after forming a peak, and the MACD averages are threatening to taper back together for a cross down. Both of these indicators suggest that price may need another tiny dip in order to form a more convincing bottom - but on their own, they are not enough to confirm one way or the other.

The picture is still unclear. There are snippets of good signs to tease out of the charts and indicators if one looks hard enough. And while most of us would like to think that Ethereum has found a bottom on its BTC pairing, it is too close to have conviction that it is the case.

In short, value investors and trading ninjas only need apply.

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