After tempting us with a potential end to its corrective period by attempting to retake $12,000, it seems that Bitcoin (BTC) has been dragged right back into this former zone and - for now - isn’t going anywhere.
Let’s start with the daily. Yesterday we observed that the leading crypto would need to close above about $11,800 to lock in a presence at that level. However, we got nowhere near that, and yesterday’s daily closed below both the important $11,200 swing line and the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Price is definitely trending down now in the short term. $11,000 has already been lost at the time of writing, and the next important zone to watch is now $10,800-600. Bitcoin was already bought up in this zone last night; but it seems more than likely for price to come well into this zone and really test it.
If this former zone does not hold, the next level to hold is the critical $10k. The failure to break $12k probably means $10k will be less likely to hold this time. A look at the 4-hour MACD indicator does not fill us with hope, either, with a bearish crossover joined by a histogram falling through to the downside.
Even the 1-hour shows little sign of improvement, with lower prices matched by lower RSI levels. Another leg down on price combined with a higher RSI would be our first sign of confidence in the short term.
At the time of writing, price is looking to retest the $11.2 mark as well as some of the EMAs. Closing above the 9 EMA would be a start, and volume for this hour is sure to outpace the previous one. Rejection from $11.2 and the EMAs, however, could send Bitcoin down to $10k itself, and at least to $10.6k.
Amid this downtrending action, however, we should keep in mind that the long term trend remains very much up until proven otherwise.
Along these lines, TheTIE crypto analytics outfit today found that the majority of posts on Twitter concerning Bitcoin were positive. An entire breakdown of Tweets concerning Bitcoin per geographic location can be found here.
4/— The TIE (@TheTIEIO) July 4, 2019
The United States has been extremely positive, with 61.5% of BTC tweets being upbeat.
Globally 59.8% of Bitcoin tweets are positive.
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