Bitcoin Holds at $10k Against the Odds - Short Term Price Analysis

After losing support and seeming very likely to fall out of a consolidation period yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) has made an unlikely bounce at $10,000, returning the leading crypto above key levels in its market structure - proposing the possibility that it could remain there.

We’ll start with the 4-hour chart, and we see that Bitcoin has clawed back above the 200 exponential moving average (EMA). We have been speaking often about the 4-hour 200 EMA here, identifying it as a critical moving average which has held up the entire 2019 BTC bull market so far.

200 EMA retaken -- for now(source: TradingView.com)

We can see, at time of writing, that Bitcoin has regained this important level and is hanging on above it. It has returned to the important $11,000 region, where the local consolidation structure’s swing point lies. Here, a downtrend resistance, and then the 55 EMA wait to test Bitcoin’s bounce.

Looking at the daily, we see the consolidation structure which might have been saved at the eleventh hour. Price has fully re-entered the structure, after being saved exactly at the 55 EMA with a strong buy wick answering the dump.

A close above $11 should signal a return to consolidation(source: TradingView.com)

Yesterday’s daily managed to close above the critical 33 EMA (roughly equivalent to the 4-hour 200 EMA), which could be a foothold to return to general consolidation within this structure. A daily close above $11,000 would probably effect this outcome. However, by the same token, a failure to close above that level would probably signal the death knell for this bounce.

If we go very granular, to the 1-hour chart, we see Bitcoin’s currently plight. Having got the bounce, Bitcoin is now struggling to secure follow-up support.

LTF indicators do not look good at present(source: TradingView.com)

Low timeframe (LTF) RSI is starting to trend downward, which will become a problem quite soon. The histogram is already putting in a nasty bar to the downside. And price is barely holding the clutch of common EMA indicators.

All in all, Bitcoin has again pulled another trick out of its sleeve. But in order to capitalize on the trick, more buyers need to step in - and soon.

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