Bitcoin Dumps Again, Where Will It Find Support? - Medium Term Price Analysis

Today, July 14, Bitcoin (BTC) is taking another leg down after being rejected hard a few days ago at $13,000. We now consider where support may be found.

At the time of writing, an important exponential moving average (EMA) is supporting the leading crypto. Looking on a wide daily view, below, the 33 EMA (red) has held up Bitcoin’s entire 2019 price history.

33 EMA on daily has held(source: TradingView.com)

We can see this important level above, on the daily - and also see that Bitcoin is currently holding right at this level. Should this level ultimately hold, we can consider the same Bitcoin uptrend intact.

Zooming in a bit to the 12-hour, we see what has been considered at CryptoGlobe Markets a consolidation pattern, between about $13,000 on top and the 66 EMA (equal to 33 on the daily) below. Contracting price and volume signal this pattern.

Still within a consolidation(source: TradingView.com)

On the 12-hour candle that just closed at time of writing, sell volume was not extreme but modest, and well below the trend line. We might therefore give Bitcoin a good chance to hold here.

Worst Case?

If it does not, though, we must of course consider the consequences. Where might a nastier dip settle?

CryptoGlobe recently covered the so-called “CME gap,” when Bitcoin futures products on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange see a significant gap in trading volume at a certain price.

The CME gap(source: TradingView.com)

This gap is found just under $9,000. CME gaps, ever since the CME launched its Bitcoin futures in December 2017, have almost always filled - leading many to speculate that this one should also be filled.

There are other reasons why this area may be a good buy target for a falling Bitcoin. As covered in this long term price analysis on July 1, several factors point to the probability of support somewhere in the $8-9,000 range.

Worst case scenario(source: TradingView.com)

Briefly, the 21 weekly EMA, 100 daily simple moving average, and general 40% of retracement limits are all features of the 2016-2017 Bitcoin bull market. These historical features of the chart all converge at the same area, and make a strong case for strong support there.

But this scenario is not yet of concern, as we have not broken the present market structure. And considering that Bitcoin recently had perhaps its best advertisement possible, we may well hold the daily 33 EMA.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Weekly Newsletter

Two Brazilian Crypto Exchanges Close Following Change in Tax Laws

  • Two Brazilian exchanges have been forced to close in the face of strict new regulations.
  • Exchanges are required to keep track of all transactions made with cryptocurrency or pay fines. 

Two Brazilian cryptocurrency exchanges have been forced to shut down following the enactment of new tax laws. 

Following reports of rampant cryptocurrency-related fraud in 2019, Brazilian politicians have created and enforced new tax regulations for the industry of cryptocurrency. 

According to a report by Bitcoin.com, exchanges Acesso and Latoex are two of the first casualties of the increased regulation. Both exchanges have decided to end operation, rather than pay the hefty fines and comply with strict regulation in the face of shrinking trading volume. 

Pedro Nunes, co-founder of Acesso Bitcoin, told Portal do Bitcoin, 

After the Federal Revenue Service introduced these rules we noticed a significant decrease in the traded volume. We also feel that the market has cooled off for smaller exchanges.

The new regulations, implemented in August 2019, require traders and brokerages to report all transactions involving cryptocurrencies. Failure to comply results in penalties ranging from 500 BRD to 1500 BRD ($120 - $360). 

Exchanges say that compliance with the new regulation requires expensive investment into new resources, which has been untenable for smaller and less profitable organizations.

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