After yesterday being rejected at the $12,000 mark, dampening hopes for a resumption of Bitcoin’s (BTC) uptrend, the leading crypto seems to be clearly consolidating in an orbit around $10,900.
Although consolidation is clearly evident by the falling volume (Bitstamp), it isn’t entirely clear what the exact borders of the range are.
Looking below on the 4-hour chart, we see the setup.
The overarching range, for now, is between $10-12,000. Price in both ranges has been clearly defended in the past week. But yesterday, price was strongly defended at $10,900, emphasizing this zone’s importance - which zone also was tough resistance during the June run to almost $14,000.
There is more to say about this chart. The possibility of a consolidating symmetrical triangle seems to be appearing. A downtrend line, red dotted, is being respected so far on the top side; and the uptrending 200 exponential moving average (EMA) has been respected on the bottom. If the next price dip is held anywhere above $10k - at the 200 EMA - we might consider the triangle scenario.
It is worth looking at the 200 EMA’s history on the 4-hour chart. Seen here on the daily chart (roughly equivalent to the 33 EMA, below), we see that this EMA has held throughout 2019. This is the same moving average currently uptrending just above $10,000 - and we would expect this line to hold again. If it does not, perhaps our market structure is in for some big changes during the latter half of 2019.
If indeed this symmetrical triangle consolidation scenario plays out, it could look a little something like this:
Breaking either of these trendlines would see retests of the $12k and sub-$10k zones, and force us back to the drawing board. If this scenario does play out, we will revisit it in a few days to consider breakout possibilities.
As far as the daily indicators go, things like okay. As long as the histogram doesn’t see a lower trough, we may not worry about Bitcoin’s long term uptrend. And on the RSI, the 53 daily line is not even being tested.
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