There is some important market news at the beginning of this week (June 17), as the Bitcoin (BTC) weekly candle has closed well above the prior week’s candle body. This signals continued strength in the leading crypto, despite months of already unbroken uptrend - seemingly flouting continued (reasonable) calls from many analysts for a cool-off period.
Looking at the chart, we see that the reversal candle - while not quite a “bullish engulfing” candle - has reversed what seemed to be an impending retracement down during the first week of June. That would-be retracement, signalled by a Doji reversal candle, proved to be - for now - just a fakeout.
Although the week didn’t close out above the previous local high of about $9,100, today’s trading has already well broken even that price level. From here, Bitcoin could easily crest the important, five-digit $10k mark.
Working down to the 3-hour chart below, we note that price was tested yesterday at the 21 exponential moving average (EMA, blue), and now generally is respecting the 9 EMA (green). At time of writing, the price is being repulsed at yesterday’s high of $9,400. We might expect another break of the 9 EMA on this chart, and retest of the 21 EMA where it meets the previous high at $9,100. A break of this level may invalidate a $10k run.
Looking at the 2-hour RSI chart, we can see price wanting to come down at time of writing. RSI staying above about 60 on this chart would lend confidence to stay long on Bitcoin. A loss of this approximate area would take us out of the running for a higher low, and perhaps signal a breakdown.
We should note that short futures contracts on the Bitfinex exchange are continuing to rise along with rising price - and approaching a historical resistance. This perhaps signals yet another moment of decision for Bitcoin in 2019: the shorts will come down one way or another, either by selling off during a Bitcoin breakdown here, or by being squeezed out on a $10k runup.
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