This 'Bull Market Is Real', But Bitcoin ETF Could Affect Crypto Prices, Analysts Argue

Omar Faridi

Arthur Hayes, CEO of the Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX), a Seychelles-registered and Hong Kong-operated cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform, believes we’re currently in a bull market.

On May 19th, 2019, Hayes noted via Twitter that despite a temporary dip below $7,000, the bitcoin (BTC) price managed to recover quickly by again surpassing the $8,000 mark.

Bitcoin ETF Decision Could Affect Bitcoin Price

According to prominent cryptocurrency trader, Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager), the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) upcoming decision, expected on May 21st, 2019, regarding the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin exchange-traded-fund (ETF) application may have “a serious impact” on the price of the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency.

Rager has argued that if the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF proposal is rejected, then there could be a “pull back” from bitcoin’s current price levels. On the other hand, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF application could “push the [bitcoin] price to new yearly highs and [trigger] mass fear of missing out (FOMO) buying.”

Meanwhile, Rager thinks if the SEC chooses to delay its decision regarding VanEck/SolidX’s Bitcoin ETF proposal, then there would likely be “little change” in the bitcoin price and potentially that of other cryptoassets.

Bitcoin To Again Trade At $20,000

Earlier this month, Michael Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, a full-service crypto merchant bank, had predicted that the bitcoin price would again surge to its all-time high of nearly $20,000 (on December 17th, 2017).

Novogratz, who was ranked by Forbes as a billionaire in 2008, prior to the Wall Street financial crisis, believes that it will take around 18 months for the bitcoin price to reach the $20,000 mark. However, the prominent investor noted that more large-scale security breaches, such as the Binance hack, could have a negative impact on the bitcoin price.

It’s “Confirmed” That Crypto Winter Has Ended

On May 19th, 2018, Thomas Lee, the Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, stated that due to certain events, which occurred in the last six months, his firm can “confirm” that the prolonged bear market has come to an end.

A few key observations by researchers at Fundstrat are as follows:

  • Bitcoin may be in the final stages of a long bear market, which lasted throughout 2018. Specifically, the cryptocurrency may be in the "accumulation phase." Moreover, Fundstrat’s analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain indicates that "Bitcoin HODLers are committing for the long term again."
  • Bitcoin's fundamentals appear to be improving as both younger and older investors have begun to take more interest in cryptoassets.
  • Institutional investors have also expressed more interest in bitcoin as they see it as "an uncorrelated, highly liquid financial asset."