In a recent interview, Vinny Lingham ("@VinnyLingham" on Twitter), the Co-Founder and CEO of blockchain-powered identity solution provider Civic Technologies ("Civic"), explained why he does not believe that the crypto bear market is over yet despite the Bitcoin price rally we've witnessed this month, a run that has seen the BTC price reach almost $5,300 (although it is currently trading at just over $5,200).
Lingham, who is also a general partner at crypto hedge fund Multicoin Capital, has been given the nickname "Bitcoin Oracle" by the media due to his uncannily good Bitcoin price predictions. His comments about Bitcoin came during an interview last week with fellow South African Ran Neuner ("@cryptomanran" on Twitter), the host of CNBC Africa's "Crypto Trader" show.
Neuner started the interview by asking Lingham if he believed that this latest bounce in the price of Bitcoin was "real" or just a "dead cat bounce." Lingham answered:
"I'm not buying any bounce right now that doesn't go to around $6,200 and stays there for 24-48 hours as being the end of the bear market cycle. If you look at bear market cycles in Bitcoin, typically, the bottom is dictated by a 2X rise. So, the bottom we saw [sic] so far is $3,100. So, $6,200 is where you can start saying it's going into a bull market, or at least the bear market is over. And until we break $6,200, I don't think it's fair to say the bear market is over."
Neuner then asked Lingham why $6,200 was such an important resistance level. The Civic CEO replied that if you look at the hisorical charts, "roughly 2X [the bottom] is where the sentiment is shown to be changed."
Next, Neuner asked if there was any chance Bitcoin could drop back to around the $3,000 level. Lingham said:
"There's absolutely a chance that it can go below $3,000. I don't think the bear market cycle is necessarily over... I'll be convinced it's over once we get above the $6,200 level. So, that's a critical level. So, there's two critical levels. It's $5,700, which is the so-called previous bottom of the market, which broke, and then $6,200, which is double what we have as a bottom right now, which is apparently $3,100. So, those are the two critical numbers. When we get past $6,20, I think it's all clear, reasonably clear at least."
At press time, according to CryptoCompare, Bitcoin is trading at $5,218, down 0.38%, in the past 24-hour period: