'Strong Signals': Crypto Winter Might Be Over, Bitcoin Could Surge Past $100,000, Analyst Argues

Omar Faridi

Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets, a financial services firm focused on forex, equities, and cryptocurrencies, has noted that “questions are being asked constantly when it comes to Bitcoin’s (BTC) battle with the $4,000 mark.”

Aslam, a business and financial economics graduate from the University of Leeds, argued in a blog post (published on March 19th, 2019) on ThinkMarkets that “the result of this battle sets the tone for a bullish or bearish trend.” He explained:

Since December 14th, 2018, there have been several battles between bulls and bears at the price level of $4,000. In each of these battles, bulls have lost the war because after the first attack at the $4,000 level, the bears have been able to gain enough strength to push the price back below this critical mark. It is in this essence, that this level has become a matter of life or death for crypto traders.

Aslam, who received his qualified financial advisor certification from the University College Dublin, stated that “if you are a long-term investor, you will not really worry about these short-term levels.” He also wrote:

The element of risk premium is of critical importance here and I find this immensely interesting ... For instance, Bitcoin … is trading at $3,962 [at the time of writing this article] and the recent meaningful low was formed on March 4th when the [cryptocurrency] touched the price level of $3,671. The difference between the two is your risk premium.

He added that “it is all about making an intelligent choice and buying when the price is still close enough to its bottom. For investors who are buying at these levels, they usually have a target of [the] previous high, and for Bitcoin, it needs to be the level of $20K.”

"High Chance" Next Bull Market Will Push BTC Price Past $100,000 

According to Aslam, there is a fairly “high chance” that the next cryptocurrency bull market will push the price of bitcoin (BTC) “over $100,000.” He also believes that Bitcoin’s value can potentially surge to $400,000 and that “crypto winter is coming to an end.”

Going on to explain why he thinks that cryptocurrency prices will recover, Aslam pointed out that in 2011, bitcoin’s price dropped about 93% from its all-time high (at that time). In 2014, BTC price fell by 84% from its previous high and “as for the most recent price crash … the most important part is that the price has started to rally [again].” Because bitcoin price “broke its longest streak of monthly losses,” Aslam believes it’s “the strongest signal” of the beginning of another crypto bull market.

Bitcoin Mining Pool Tries to Help Tone Vays Win $10K Bet Against Roger Ver

Cryptocurrency mining pool SlushPool has recently manually added a BTC transaction into a block to help Tone Vays, a derivatives trader and analyst, win a wager mage against BCH proponent Roger Ver.

The wager was made at the 2019 Malta AI & Blockchain Summit, during a debate between bitcoin (BTC) proponent Tone Vays and Bitcoin.com CEO and BCH advocate Roger Ver. In it, Ver argued BTC transactions are too expensive for business use due to the cryptocurrency’s small block size.

Vays, on the other hand, argued segregated witness (SegWit) and second-layer scaling solutions like the Lightning Network allow users to make small transactions without paying high fees, and that he has been using BTC on-chain without paying too much for transactions.

The debate ended up seeing Vays send Roger Ver $5 worth of BTC with a one satoshi per byte transactions fee – equal to the fees paid on the Bitcoin Cash chain – to see if it would confirm the same day. If it did, the CEO of Bitcoin.com claimed he would donate $10,000 to a charity of Vays’ choice.

During the debate, both parties noted the transaction was “priority 23,836 out of 24,355 transactions,” meaning that most transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain had to clear before miners picked that one up, at least according to fees paid for transactions.

As Vays soon noted on social media the transaction cleared after 10 hours. Some, however, found it strange. Cobra Bitcoin, the pseudonymous co-owner of Bitcoin.org and Bitcointalk, pointed out on social media that SlushPool – the mining pool that found the block the transaction was included in – manually added it to help Vays win the bet.

Cobra Bitcoin figured it wasn’t mined “naturally” as it was the second transaction included in the block – right after the coinbase transaction – despite the fee being less than 1% of that of all other transactions included in the block.

On Reddit, users pointed this out and accused SlushPool of manually adding the transaction. The mining pool, according to some users, is known for supporting BTC and being against Bitcoin Cash.

Should Roger Ver Pay?

The wager quickly became a controversial topic that seems to bring back memories of the scaling debate that was going on before Bitcoin Cash forked off of the Bitcoin network back in August of 2017.

Some argue that Roger Ver’s point stands as the transaction wasn’t “naturally” confirmed, but manually included in a block. Moreover the CEO of Bitcoin.com claimed he’d donate the money if it confirmed that day, and when the transaction did confirm it was past midnight in Malta.

On the other hand, some claim the transaction did go through anyway, and as such Roger Ver should donate the funds to a charity of Tone Vays’ choice. Moreover, Vays himself argued BCH supporters could have spammed the BTC mempool with two satoshis per byte transactions to stop his from clearing on time.

On Twitter, Vays created a poll that was retweeted by SlushPool and admitted the mining pool did prioritize the transaction. It currently shows most users believe Roger Ver should donate the funds. As one commenter pointed out, however, the results may change if Ver and other BCH supporters retweet the poll.