BitMEX CEO: Bitcoin's Price Will Reach $10,000 Before End of 2019

Omar Faridi
  • Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, the world's largest crypto derivatives exchange, has predicted Bitcoin price will surge (again) to $10,000 by end of this year.
  • Hayes had previously (incorrectly) forecasted a $50,000 BTC price by end of year 2018. 

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and CEO of the Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (BitMEX), a Seychelles-registered and Hong Kong-operated crypto derivatives trading platform, has predicted that bitcoin's (BTC) price will surge to $10,000 this year.

Hayes, a Wharton School of Business graduate, had previously forecasted that Bitcoin’s price would hit $50,000 by the end of 2018. However, the value of the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency dropped below the $4,000 mark towards the end of last year.

Hayes’ most recent BTC price prediction was revealed in a newsletter, in which he noted the crypto market will begin to recover during early Q4 2019. Hayes wrote: 

The 2019 chop will be intense, but the markets will claw back to $10,000. That is a very significant psychological barrier. [...] $20,000 is the ultimate recovery. However, it took 11 months from $1,000 to $10,000, but less than one month from $10,000 to $20,000 back to $10,000.

"Bears Gain Strength" To Push BTC's Price Below $4,000

On March 19, 2019, Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets, a financial services company that specializes in traditional equities, forex, and cryptocurrency trading, had noted that “questions are being asked constantly when it comes to bitcoin’s battle with the $4,000 mark.”

Aslam, a business and financial economics graduate from the University of Leeds, pointed out that since December 14, 2018, there had been several “battles” between the bulls and the bears at the $4,000 price level. According to Aslam’s assessment: 

In [the] battles, [the] bulls have (so far) lost the war because after the first attack at the $4,000 level, the bears have been able to gain enough strength to push the price back below this critical mark. It is in this essence, that this level has become a matter of “life or death” for crypto traders.

Bitcoin Could Hit $400,000

Aslam, who’s a qualified financial advisor (from the University College Dublin), also argued that “if you are a long-term investor, you will not really worry about these short-term levels.” He added that based on current crypto market activity, there’s a “high chance,” or probability, that the next digital asset bull market will push bitcoin past the $100,000 mark. Notably, Aslam also believes that bitcoin’s value could potentially reach $400,000 in the long-term.

Murad Mahmudov, a prominent crypto analyst, has observed that bitcoin’s upwards and downwards price movements occur in cycles and that during each cycle, the digital asset’s price has dipped into even lower weekly moving averages. In early February 2019, Mahmudov had stated that it was mainly “speculation” and “greed” which had (previously) been driving the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to higher levels. He also noted last month that Bitcoin-related tweets were at their lowest since 2014, which according to him “screams bearish.”

Notable Bitcoin Trader and Whale Not Bullish on the Hyperinflation Narrative

Colin Muller

Highly regarded Bitfinex trader and crypto whale J0E007 is not banking on the hyperinflation narrative, which is a highly popular notion in the cryptoasset industry, implying it's a fairy tale.

Screenshot from 2020-05-26 13-23-22.png(source: Bitfinex pulse)

This narrative, exhibited for example here, proposes that the aggressive fiscal and monetary intervention on the part of many central banks around the world will eventually lead to sharp devaluations in the values of many fiat currencies—and most importantly of the U.S. dollar.

Propagation of this concept of rampant fiat inflation in the cryptoasset space is generally tied to predictions of a huge increase in the price and/or market capitalization of Bitcoin and other cryptos, although most focus on the flagship cryptocurrency.

A Little More Complicated

In his post, JOE007 linked to a recent report from Alhambra Investments, an asset management and financial research outfit.

The report details lead analyst Jeffrey Snider’s view that the dollar is not going anywhere in terms of demand, although definitely not by virtue of the competence of the U.S. Federal Reserve in handling the unfolding economic crisis lit by COVID-19.

Conceptually, first, any strong desire to hold expensive dollar liquidity buffers is drawn from serious mistrust of systemic conditions – including the central bank’s place in them. If you thought Jay Powell well prepared in advance with effective countermeasures standing at the ready, buffers of any size need not apply.

Jeffrey P. Snider

In short, Snider contends that the Fed under chair Jay Powell has not responded appropriately to the emerging crisis with “effective countermeasures at the ready”; and this bungling in turn has led to a higher international demand for US dollars in order to sit on a larger and safer cushion of “expensive dollar liquidity buffers.”

A complicated subject, to say the least. The upshot for J0E007 being that the dollar-collapsing narrative may have some big holes in it—removing the keystone of that popular Bitcoin use-case narrative.

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