A blockchain-focused think tank, the DD Think Tank, has recently suggested that Bitcoin’s current market cycle could last until May 2020, after analyzing over “100,000 pieces of data of the global cryptocurrency industry.”
According to ChainDD’s 2018-2019 Cryptocurrency Market Annual Report, the cryptocurrency ecosystem is set to keep on developing in the near future, but the market will only turn bullish after Bitcoin’s halving event in 2020, when the amount of new BTC introduced into the market drops from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25.
In its in-depth analysis, ChanDD’s DD Think Tank noted that as of January 9 of this year, there were 2,091 cryptocurrencies in the market, which lost over 87.7% of its value since its highs in late 2017.
The cryptocurrency that dropped the most during the bear market, it reads, was Bitcoin Cash (BCH) which dropped by 97.3% from its all-time high. For comparison, BTC dropped 81.5% from its all-time high.
The report adds that initial coin offerings (ICOs) in the market kept on growing significantly and launching new tokens into the market. In early 2017 there were 691 cryptos, and by the end of the year there 1,355. In 2018, these saw their numbers drop significantly.
Bitcoin’s price drop from over $6,000 to little over $3,200 came in November of last year, and DD Think Tank explains it occurred over “harsh overall economic conditions,” and over lacking investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
The think tank added that it believes in 2019 the bubble still present in the market will disappear, although the current cycle is only changing in 2020. The report reads:
The market will return to its value starting point. This cycle will last till May 2020 and the BTC reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25.
By then, the organization added, BTC’s price rise will lead to an “explosive advancement of blockchain 3.0,” which will be based off of “integration of real economy and commercial scenarios.”
In its report, DD Think Tank further noted that in 2013 BTC went through a bear market similar to the one seen last year, as it fell from a $1,150 high to $176 in a short amount of time,and only surpassed the $1,000 mark again in 2017, years later.
Investors Turned to BTC During The Bear Market
In a follow-up post ChainDD’s blockchain think tank went into the different price fluctuations of the top cryptocurrencies, and found that investors greatly reduced their exposure to altcoins during last year’s bear market, and moved back to BTC.
It notes that before prices started plunging BTC’s market share of the cryptocurrency ecosystem was between 34-38%, but noted it kept on rising throughout the year, to peak at 53%.
Bitcoin's dominance compared to the crypto market's capitlaization
The flagship cryptocurrency kept on being recognized by investors, while privacy-centric tokens lost part of their market share. This could presumably be explained by the shutdown of dark web marketplaces like AlphaBay and Hansa.
The organization believes the top 30 cryptocurrencies will stay on the top in the near future, but noted that while some claimed to be able to solve fundamental blockchain-related problems – such as low transactions per second – these haven’t been solved.
In fact, DD Think Tank notes punchlines that saw cryptos claim to process “millions of TPS [transactions per second],” and “overtaking Ethereum” seemingly disappeared near the end of 2018.
Gaming, Gambling Dapps Dominate The Market
Gaming and gambling-related decentralized applications (Dapps), it found, dominate the Dapp market as a whole. By the end of last year, 1,609 Dapps existed in total, and 1,324 of these were based on the Ethereum blockchain.
Once EOS was launched, researchers noted a steady increase in the number of Dapps in its blockchain, that managed to reach 228 by December 31, 2018. TRON’s blockchain saw 57 at about the same time.
Together, gaming (26%) and gambling (29%) Dapps accounted for over 50% of the market, with other popular categories including financial and “high-risk” platforms. These high-risk platforms are either faulty, insecure ones or those suspected to be Ponzi schemes – they accounted for 20% of all Dapps.
Outside of the top platform in each category, most Dapps had less than 100 active users per day, even though “phenomenal games have appeared with relatively short life cycles.”
As CryptoGlobe covered, ChainDD’s Think Tank has recently revealed that six cryptocurrency mining pools were in control of 75% of bitcoin’s hashrate earlier this year.