Cryptocurrency prices might drop lower and again start testing their fourth-quarter (2018) lows, according to Robert Sluymer, the managing director at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Sluymer, who’s also the head of technical research at Fundstrat, told Business Times, Singapore (on February 7th) that his team of analysts believe small cap altcoins may be at greater risk than more established cryptocurrency platforms. Expecting crypto prices to drop further, Sluymer noted:
The price structure for most cryptocurrencies remains weak and appears vulnerable to a pending breakdown to lower lows.
Based on Fundstrat’s proprietary advance/decline indicators, which analyze the top 250 cryptoassets (in terms of market cap), digital asset prices are “at risk of breaking to new lows”, Sluymer stated.
After reaching an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017, the price of bitcoin (BTC), the flagship cryptocurrency, has dropped below the $3,500 mark. Notably, a report published by JPMorgan in December 2018 revealed that the cost to create (mine) one bitcoin was approximately $4,060, however the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency was only trading at around $3,500.
Keep A Close Watch On $3,100 BTC Price
Although Sluymer’s firm, Fundstrat Global Advisors, has stopped providing future price estimates for bitcoin, he has said that the key level to keep an eye on would be $3,100.
Per the former managing director at RBC Capital Markets:
A break below the fourth-quarter lows at US$3,100 would imply a decline to US$2,270, while a move above US$4,200 is needed to signal Bitcoin is beginning to improve.
In October 2018, Fundstrat Global Advisors performed a survey during a company dinner with 25 institutional investors. Interestingly, 54% of the institutions that responded to Fundstrat’s survey said bitcoin had bottomed already. At that time, bitcoin had been trading at well above $6,000.
Crypto Dog: $1,800 To $6,200 Bitcoin Price Range
About 1 out of 4, or 24%, of those who participated in Fundstrat’s survey had said that bitcoin would bottom by year-end 2018. Only 18% predicted BTC price would hit its lowest point by March 2019 and just 14% of Fundstrat’s survey respondents thought bitcoin would bottom by mid-2019.
More recently on February 5th, 2019, an experienced crypto trader with the Twitter handle, “The Crypto Dog” (@TheCryptoDog), had tweeted to his followers that an $1,800 bitcoin price would “not surprise” him.
The experienced trader also shared an older thread he had posted (in December 2018) which argued that bitcoin could be “in [its] final stages of [the current] bear market.” The Crypto Dog believes BTC price might reach “an absolute low of $1,800” and “an absolute high of $6,200.” However, he pointed out it’s difficult for anyone to accurately predict the future price of cryptocurrencies or an other asset.