Tim Kelly, the founder and CEO at BitOoda, a cryptoasset advisory firm, has said that “the final wave of desperation [could] take us” to a bitcoin (BTC) price in “the mid-to-high $2,000s.”
Bitcoin is currently trading at $3,604.85 according to CryptoCompare data – as the BTC price surged by almost 10% earlier this week (from around $3,400). According to Kelly’s analysis (shared with MarketWatch):
[BitOoda] expects the final wave of desperation to take us [to a BTC price below $3,000] before the market starts the recovery. We could be wrong, of course, and until the 2018 low is taken out (it has not been revisited yet), there is a possibility that the selloff is done.
Kelly further noted that he is expecting a downside target for bitcoin between $2,400 to $2,800, however a short-term rally might be able to take the BTC price back up to the $4,030-$4,300 price range. It’s even possible that bitcoin might find a “$5,600-$6,000 support level”, Kelly argued.
Predicting BTC Price Support At $3,530, Resistance At $3,750
Meanwhile, Twitter user DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt), a widely-followed crypto analyst, noted via Twitter that “as expected, [bitcoin] is struggling with resistance.” Estimating a support level of around $3,530 while predicting resistance at $3,750, DonAlt mentioned that he’d be “going wick hunting somewhere between the two dotted green lines (pictured below).”
As expected struggling with resistance.
I'll be going wick hunting somewhere between the two dotted green lines.
Any moves into the green box would make recovery unlikely to me.
I don't really expect that to happen though.
R: 3750 pic.twitter.com/EtxrkmDUo3
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) February 12, 2019
On February 4th, 2019, Murad Mahmudov, a prominent crypto analyst and widely followed market commentator on social media, pointed out that the number of bitcoin-related tweets had dropped to “the same level as 2014.”
Mahmudov added that it appears as if “nothing has changed” as the number of tweets about bitcoin are even lower than “at any point in 2016.” He also mentioned that “all the people, particularly in the Western world, obsessed with Bitcoin” including Pierre Rochard (the founder of Bitcoin Advisory), have already been in the crypto space for many years.
“Greed, Speculation” Are Biggest Drivers Of BTC Price
According to Mahmudov’s observations, “bull markets bring fewer new obsessed” crypto industry participants and “there are [even] fewer of them overall than I thought.” There are also significantly “fewer people” who may be interested in “decentralized sovereign”, deflationary currencies “for its own sake than you’d like to think”, Mahmudov argued. He remarked:
Cryptocurrency's biggest use case is speculation. That is a fact. For better or worse, speculation and human greed are your biggest hope.
While some analysts like Mahmudov maintain a bearish outlook, well-known Chinese cryptocurrency billionaire, Zhao Dong recently said it was a great time to buy bitcoin. He believes:
The people who [are currently] paying attention to bitcoin are obviously [a lot fewer] than the [number of interested investors during the] bull market, and … naturally … the prices [are] low right now.
Towards the end of last year, Dong had predicted (on China’s microblogging social media platform Weibo) a bitcoin price of $50,000 by 2022.