Bitcoin Could Hit $1,165 Before Surpassing the $10,000 Mark, Analyst Argues

Omar Faridi
  • A crypto analyst and full-time trader believes bitcoin could bottom at $1,165. 
  • He has argued that BTC price might surge to $10,200, but only after its price drops below current levels.

Twitter user Financial Survivalism, a cryptocurrency advocate and former insurance agent and financial advisor, predicted via Twitter that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could drop to $1,165 in the near future.

According to Financial Survivalism, who is now a full-time trader and a self-proclaimed “financial revolution prepper”, the price of bitcoin could continue to decline further due to what he refers to as the “Hyperwave” form of crypto price analysis. Per the trader’s analysis, BTC's price could potentially surge if it manages to reach Phase 1 of its Hyperwave formation.

Notably, prominent crypto analyst Murad Mahmudov has reportedly accepted a 0.1 BTC bet from Financial Survivalism. Mahmudov, a partner at Adaptive Capital, has argued that bitcoin will bottom in the $1,600 to $2,300 price range. As mentioned, Financial Survivalism believes the flagship cryptocurrency’s price might drop as low as $1,165 on Bitstamp “before” surging to $10,200.

Bitcoin's Price Enters "Adam And Eve" Formation

In another chart, Financial Survivalism pointed out other technical indicators which suggest that bitcoin's price could fall below current support levels. The former insurance agent drew lines between the 2014-2015 crypto bear market and the one that the digital asset ecosystem is currently experiencing.

Survivalism argued that in the last crypto bear market, bitcoin's price entered what he refers to as the “Adam and Eve” formation - which allowed for a temporary upside breakout that tested the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). However, the BTC price dropped lower in that same cycle.

Given that the bitcoin chart has again entered an Adam and Eve formation, the full-time trader believes that history could repeat itself, meaning that the world’s most dominant cryptocurrency might first retest the $5,500 mark. However, bitcoin's price could then drop to lower levels, and according to Survivalism’s estimates, bitcoin could trade as low as $732.84.

Bitcoin-Related Tweets Drop To Lowest Levels Since 2014

On February 4, 2019, Mahmudov informed his followers via Twitter that bitcoin-related tweets dropped to “the same level as 2014.” The experienced analyst added that it seems “like nothing has changed” as tweets about bitcoin are even lower than “at any point in 2016.”

Mahmudov also pointed out that “all the people, particularly in the Western world, obsessed with Bitcoin” such as Pierre Rochard (the founder of Bitcoin Advisory), have been in the crypto space for a relatively long period of time. Because of this, Mahmudov argued crypto pioneers and cypherpunks might not realize that there are actually “fewer people” who are interested in “decentralized sovereign” deflationary currencies “for [their] own sake than you'd like to think.”

According to Mahmudov, the crypto bear market might last a lot longer than most people expect. However, “those who are building, learning, studying right now of course will be handsomely rewarded in 2023/2024”, the trader stated.

How Bakkt Can Bring the Crypto Space an Institutional Investor Influx

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts have for years been waiting for institutional investors to enter the space. While the introduction of bitcoin futures contracts on regulated exchanges in late 2017 didn’t gain a lot of traction, but Bakkt may.

Bakkt is a long-awaited bitcoin futures exchange and on-boarding platform from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange – and it’s set to launch this year. Bakkt itself has remained tight-lipped over the precise launch date after delaying its launch last year, with ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher in February simply saying “later this year.”

It’s possible that this quarter may see the launch or at least more news about when the exchange is finally coming. At the end of March, Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler explained:

While we’re not yet able to provide a launch date, we’re making solid progress in bringing the first physical delivery price discovery contracts for bitcoin to the U.S.

Bakkt’s launch could be a major milestone for the cryptoasset industry. A venture backed by Microsoft and Starbucks, its institutional pedigree alone will switch many cautious investors on. Specifically, the firm is set to help consumers pay for goods and services with cryptocurrencies, with Starbucks being the flagship retailer in its arsenal.

Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures contracts will be the first physically-settled derivatives on a regulated trading platform. This means investors will receive the contract’s underlying asset, bitcoin, when it expires.

Currently the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers cash-settled bitcoin futures contracts, meaning investors get the equivalent of BTC’s value in fiat when the contracts expire. This is seen by some as a major development in the cryptocurrency space, as it shows traditional finance is willing to interact with the nascent cryptoasset industry.

It’s worth noting that earlier this year the ICE’s CEO called Bakkt a “bit of a moonshot bet,”  as it was organized in a way “very different than the way ICE typically does business.” The firm has its own offices and management team, and could undergo more rounds of financing in the future.

Bakkt And a Potential Bitcoin ETF

What’s significant about Bakkt’s launch beyond this, is that it may bolster the chances of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded fund (ETF) being approved. Such a product would make it easier for institutional investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies.

In August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected nine other ETF applications, in particular highlighting how those applying hadn’t provided evidence that “bitcoin futures markets are of significant size’” for an ETF to be launched.

Once Bakkt is launched its trading volumes may very well help quell the SEC’s concerns over the bitcoin futures markets’ small size as institutions and other investors may feel comfortable entering it. Larger futures contracts trading volume, increased liquidity and a well-established company involved may prove enough to convince the SEC that the time is right for a Bitcoin ETF.

Bakkt therefore represents a very significant milestone for a maturing cryptoasset industry and may well herald the “institutional influx” that many have been anticipating since 2017. Despite the markets remaining relatively flat throughout 2019 these looming decisions in the U.S. have the power to move the entire industry forward, for better or worse.