Bitcoin May Not Make a Comeback This Year, Chinese Analysts Claim

Francisco Memoria

Various analysts in China reportedly believe that bitcoin, the number one cryptocurrency, may not make a ‘big comeback’ this year. After enduring a year-long bearish trend that saw its price dip from a near $20,000 all-time high to a $3,200 low, it may not yet be ready to recover.

Per local news outlet Beijing News, analysts in China are cautious when it comes to the cryptocurrency’s future in the short-term, as they argue the market won’t likely see large returns this year.

Sun Hang, a senior analyst at Token Club, claimed that in the short run we may see the market move upward due to an “imbalance” between supply and demand. Even if the price does rise, Hang added, it’ll likely only happen in the second half of this year.

As for whether investors should put their money in bitcoin this year, Hang revealed it depends on the investors. If they’re looking to hold for “3 to 5 years”, he said, it “makes sense to buy [the] dip in 2019.”

 If they’re looking to invest for a shorter amount of time, he added, they should be careful as “bitcoin is unlikely to outperform other investment targets due to the limitations of blockchain technology over the next 12 months.” As to whether bitcoin was close to bottoming out, he noted it wasn’t clear.

Per 8BTC, another analyst named Huang Liang took a different approach. He was quoted as saying:

At both macroeconomic (tight liquidity within the crypto market) and microeconomic level (slower-than-anticipated blockchain adoption), 2019 will not be a year for bitcoin’s strong corrective rally.

The analyst added that BTC’s price may still drop further this year. Another analyst, Xiao Lei, revealed he sees this year as one in which cryptocurrencies look for a “survival value,” and not one in which cryptoasset prices repeat 2017’s rally, although it’ll be better than last year’s bear market.

Per his words, in 2019 we can expect volatility in the market, with heavy correction included. Lei was quoted as saying:

The best investment strategy is to keep calm, pour a relatively small amount of money into the market and accept the volatility.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at $3,900 after rising 1.7% in the last 24-hour period. The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index, a market cap-weighted index that tracks the price of the top 100 cryptos, shows BTC is outperforming most top altcoins, as the index is up 1.1% in said period.

Other top altcoins, however, are performing much better. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market cap, is up 5.7% to $159.2, while Tron’s TRX has surged 10% over BitTorrent’s BTT token, while litecoin is up 13% as it’s trading at $36.

Could President Trump Ban Bitcoin? Experts Weigh In

  • Experts weigh in on the possibility of President Trump banning bitcoin.
  • Increasing concern over libra and large platform digital currencies is driving political agenda. 

Following last week’s attack on bitcoin and Facebook’s libra, experts have voiced their opinion on whether US President Donald Trump could realistically impose a ban on cryptocurrency. 

Not a Fan of Bitcoin

On July 11, President Donald Trump published a series of tweets attacking bitcoin and digital currencies, while championing the dollar. 

President Trump’s comments come in the midst of growing concern over Facebook’s libra, as political regulators around the world scramble to enact policies to deal with the rise of digital currencies. 

Members of the crypto community have questioned the impact of the US President taking an unfavorable stance towards bitcoin. Some crypto pundits predicted the tweets would be good for the price of BTC and ultimately increase exposure to cryptoassets. However, others worry that political influence may lead to a crackdown on cryptocurrency usage. 

Scenarios for Banning Crypto

Alex Kruger, economist and market analyst, published a tweet thread examining the legality and possibility of President Trump banning bitcoin. 

According to Kruger, It would be almost impossible for the US government to outlaw bitcoin as a technological instrument. Aside from the Herculean task of eradicating a decentralized, digital technology, bitcoin is code, which is protected under the first amendment.

However, that same protection is not extended to third-party operators, including cryptocurrency exchanges. 

Kruger quoted Abra CEO and Founder BIll Barhydt, who explained in a Forbes article how the government could target fiat onramps to exchanges, 

“You can’t prevent people from holding ones and zeroes on a device in their pocket. That ship has sailed. We already know that. The question is: What can they do at the edge of the network -- the onramps and offramps, the places where they exert control over the banking system, the exchanges, [and the] stablecoins.”

The US government could prevent retail investors from having access to crypto-assets through exchanges and prevent banks from allowing transfer of funds. Users would still be able to buy crypto through alternative channels, but the current ease of investing would be severely hampered. 

Unlikely, But Not Impossible

President Trump could also issue an executive order banning citizens from dealing in bitcoin, similar to the one he issued against the Petro. While there is a precedent for this route, Kruger claims the order could be easily overturned by Congress, 

Ultimately, Kruger believes that it is unlikley the President or Congress would move to ban bitcoin, and it would be difficult to enact fool-proof policy. However, it's worth considering the political landscape as regulatory concerns mount over Facebook's libra.

Just last week, a copy of a bill reportedly drafted by the House Financial Services Committee surfaced online, under the title "Keep Big Tech Out of Finance." The bill would put an end to Facebook and other large platforms from issuing digital currencies without incurring a severe penalty.

The same could be extended to bitcoin in the event the government finds crypto-assets no longer tolerable for the general public.