Bitcoin May Not Make a Comeback This Year, Chinese Analysts Claim

Francisco Memoria

Various analysts in China reportedly believe that bitcoin, the number one cryptocurrency, may not make a ‘big comeback’ this year. After enduring a year-long bearish trend that saw its price dip from a near $20,000 all-time high to a $3,200 low, it may not yet be ready to recover.

Per local news outlet Beijing News, analysts in China are cautious when it comes to the cryptocurrency’s future in the short-term, as they argue the market won’t likely see large returns this year.

Sun Hang, a senior analyst at Token Club, claimed that in the short run we may see the market move upward due to an “imbalance” between supply and demand. Even if the price does rise, Hang added, it’ll likely only happen in the second half of this year.

As for whether investors should put their money in bitcoin this year, Hang revealed it depends on the investors. If they’re looking to hold for “3 to 5 years”, he said, it “makes sense to buy [the] dip in 2019.”

 If they’re looking to invest for a shorter amount of time, he added, they should be careful as “bitcoin is unlikely to outperform other investment targets due to the limitations of blockchain technology over the next 12 months.” As to whether bitcoin was close to bottoming out, he noted it wasn’t clear.

Per 8BTC, another analyst named Huang Liang took a different approach. He was quoted as saying:

At both macroeconomic (tight liquidity within the crypto market) and microeconomic level (slower-than-anticipated blockchain adoption), 2019 will not be a year for bitcoin’s strong corrective rally.

The analyst added that BTC’s price may still drop further this year. Another analyst, Xiao Lei, revealed he sees this year as one in which cryptocurrencies look for a “survival value,” and not one in which cryptoasset prices repeat 2017’s rally, although it’ll be better than last year’s bear market.

Per his words, in 2019 we can expect volatility in the market, with heavy correction included. Lei was quoted as saying:

The best investment strategy is to keep calm, pour a relatively small amount of money into the market and accept the volatility.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at $3,900 after rising 1.7% in the last 24-hour period. The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index, a market cap-weighted index that tracks the price of the top 100 cryptos, shows BTC is outperforming most top altcoins, as the index is up 1.1% in said period.

Other top altcoins, however, are performing much better. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market cap, is up 5.7% to $159.2, while Tron’s TRX has surged 10% over BitTorrent’s BTT token, while litecoin is up 13% as it’s trading at $36.

Bitcoin Mining Pool Tries to Help Tone Vays Win $10K Bet Against Roger Ver

Cryptocurrency mining pool SlushPool has recently manually added a BTC transaction into a block to help Tone Vays, a derivatives trader and analyst, win a wager mage against BCH proponent Roger Ver.

The wager was made at the 2019 Malta AI & Blockchain Summit, during a debate between bitcoin (BTC) proponent Tone Vays and Bitcoin.com CEO and BCH advocate Roger Ver. In it, Ver argued BTC transactions are too expensive for business use due to the cryptocurrency’s small block size.

Vays, on the other hand, argued segregated witness (SegWit) and second-layer scaling solutions like the Lightning Network allow users to make small transactions without paying high fees, and that he has been using BTC on-chain without paying too much for transactions.

The debate ended up seeing Vays send Roger Ver $5 worth of BTC with a one satoshi per byte transactions fee – equal to the fees paid on the Bitcoin Cash chain – to see if it would confirm the same day. If it did, the CEO of Bitcoin.com claimed he would donate $10,000 to a charity of Vays’ choice.

During the debate, both parties noted the transaction was “priority 23,836 out of 24,355 transactions,” meaning that most transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain had to clear before miners picked that one up, at least according to fees paid for transactions.

As Vays soon noted on social media the transaction cleared after 10 hours. Some, however, found it strange. Cobra Bitcoin, the pseudonymous co-owner of Bitcoin.org and Bitcointalk, pointed out on social media that SlushPool – the mining pool that found the block the transaction was included in – manually added it to help Vays win the bet.

Cobra Bitcoin figured it wasn’t mined “naturally” as it was the second transaction included in the block – right after the coinbase transaction – despite the fee being less than 1% of that of all other transactions included in the block.

On Reddit, users pointed this out and accused SlushPool of manually adding the transaction. The mining pool, according to some users, is known for supporting BTC and being against Bitcoin Cash.

Should Roger Ver Pay?

The wager quickly became a controversial topic that seems to bring back memories of the scaling debate that was going on before Bitcoin Cash forked off of the Bitcoin network back in August of 2017.

Some argue that Roger Ver’s point stands as the transaction wasn’t “naturally” confirmed, but manually included in a block. Moreover the CEO of Bitcoin.com claimed he’d donate the money if it confirmed that day, and when the transaction did confirm it was past midnight in Malta.

On the other hand, some claim the transaction did go through anyway, and as such Roger Ver should donate the funds to a charity of Tone Vays’ choice. Moreover, Vays himself argued BCH supporters could have spammed the BTC mempool with two satoshis per byte transactions to stop his from clearing on time.

On Twitter, Vays created a poll that was retweeted by SlushPool and admitted the mining pool did prioritize the transaction. It currently shows most users believe Roger Ver should donate the funds. As one commenter pointed out, however, the results may change if Ver and other BCH supporters retweet the poll.