"Best Time to Buy Bitcoin is Before Halving Events," Which Is Now-ish

Colin Muller

Looposhi, a well known Twitter commentator with almost 54,000 followers, has observed the historical bitcoin trend that periods preceding Bitcoin halving events have signalled the bottom of market cycles and claims that now is the time to acquire bitcoin at low prices.

Although there have been only two halvings in bitcoin’s history - not exactly an overflowing dataset - Looposhi concentrates on the pre-2016 halving price action.

 

The Pain of 2014/18

In the bitcoin market collapse that followed the Mt. Gox hack and meltdown, the bottom of that market was found roughly 550 days before the 2016 bitcoin halving, which took place on July 9, 2016. During that window of time, bitcoin’s price traded in a zone between roughly $200-300 for about seven or eight months, before breaking that market structure and continuing to new highs - highs which were definitively obtained about seven months after the 2016 halving.

2014bear.png(source: tradingview.com)

What has become the 2018 bear market is often compared to the 2014-15 market, in terms of price action and market structure - although clearly there is no similar catastrophic catalyst to speak of. The 2014-15 bitcoin market corrected 85% from top to bottom, and the current market has done about 82.5%, leading some to think that a bottom is near.

Looposhi is arguing along these lines, implying by his illustration that the next year-plus will see a bitcoin bottom, sideways accumulation, and the eventual return to an uptrend. All of this in anticipation of the next halving, which will further reduce bitcoin’s supply. The halving will occur sometime in early- to mid-2020.

A halving is rather complicated: although it cuts mining rewards in half, bitcoin’s difficulty regime will adjust to accommodate miners leaving as a result, which eventually should rebalance the ecosystem. A temporary loss in mining power as a result of miners leaving during such a period, however, has in the past helped to stoke fears of a “death spiral” - which subject CryptoGlobe recently covered.

Looposhi is not the first to make this argument, of course. Billy Bambrough similarly pointed out this dynamic in a May 29 Forbes article, writing “While the Bitcoin price has climbed somewhat ahead of both subsequent halving events, the price has gone on to boom in the subsequent 12 or so months.” Other Twitter users have also constructed similar charts of similar predictions with respect to the halving.

Ultimately, however, price predictions are usually worth less than the virtual paper they’re scrawled on. If 2017-18 has taught us anything, it is to be careful when investing in crypto markets. Absolutely, positively none of this was financial advice.

Bitcoin Ransomware Hackers Lose Control of Their Decryption Tool

Michael LaVere
  • Software firm Emsisoft warns that attacks broke their own decryption tool for the Ryuk ransomware.
  • Affected users are at risk of having their files deleted despite paying the bitcoin ransom. 

A security firm has warned that the Ryuk bitcoin ransomware has broken its own decryption tool, causing affected users to lose their files even after sending the BTC ransom. 

Software company Emsisoft told news outlet The Next Web that the hackers behind the Ryuk ransomware are responsible for the decryption error. According to the security firm, a recent update made to Ryuk caused the program to alter the way it calculates the length files, inadvertently making the decryption tool defunct, 

As a result, the decryptor provided by the Ryuk authors will truncate files, cutting off one too many bytes in the process of decrypting the file. Depending on the exact file type, this may or may not cause major issues.

Users who pay the crypto ransom are still at risk of losing their files and data, depending on where the byte cutoff is made. 

Emsisoft recommends Ryuk victims backup encrypted data before running the decryption key,

A final word of advice: prior to running any ransomware decryptor – whether it was supplied by a bad actor or by a security company – be sure to back up the encrypted data first. Should the tool not work as expected, you’ll be able to try again.

Featured Image Credit: Photo via Pixabay.com