For the First Time in a Year, Bitcoin Is Less Volatile Than the Stock Market

  • As the stock market takes a wild tumble, volatility measures show that Bitcoin’s price has had less volatility than the S&P 500 index.
  • Bitcoin’s price has held in the six thousand range, telling some that the bear market might be over.

For the first time this year, Bitcoin’s price volatility is lower than that of the S&P 500 Index, a popular benchmark for U.S. equity markets. Using a 10-day historical volatility measure, the S&P 500’s volatility for the past week was 27. This is almost twice the value that Bitcoin clocked: only 15.7, as reported by Bloomberg.

This exchange of volatility happens as both markets are experiencing irregular price patterns. The S&P 500, which has been in a raging bull market for years, is currently undergoing a correction. Since its peak on September 21, 2018, the S&P has dropped as much as 11.5%, its worst down-trend since the beginning of the year.

S&P 500

Stocks have been taking a beating recently as investors express concerns over international trade. Specifically, experts are worried about how President Donald Trump will handle a Chinese trade deal. Many are “not optimistic,” says White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow.

On the other hand, bitcoin has been unusually quiet. Besides October 15, 2018, when bitcoin saw a Tether bank run push its price up 10%, the price of bitcoin has remained fairly constant. Volatility in the bitcoin market has been so slow, some analysts are joking that “bitcoin has become a stablecoin.” Data from CryptoCompare illustrates this:

Bitcoin's been trading within a tight rangeData From CryptoCompare

Bitcoin analysts have been monitoring the cryptocurrency’s volatility for almost a month now. In the beginning of October 2018, momentum started slowing down, and some expressed sentiment that there could be a big move coming. Over the past few weeks, bitcoin's volatility has not come back, as shown in the chart above, and the price has remained relatively stagnant.

Bitcoin's volatility has decline so much its 30-day index dropped to levels it hadn't seen since December of 2016. Some analysts have claimed this means the cryptocurrency is now becoming a store of value, and that it's price will start rising steadily in the future as more ivnestors recognize it as a SoV.

Tim Draper Explains Why Buffett Is Bashing Bitcoin, CZ Invites Him to Lunch

Siamak Masnavi

On Monday (February 24), legendary American tech investor Tim Draper spoke about why he recently moved most of his investment funds into crypto, why he is still bullish on Bitcoin and confident about his $250 price prediction, and why he thinks billionaire investor Warren Buffett is so critical of Bitcoin.

Draper, a co-founder of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson (DFJ) and an early investor in quite a few unicorns, including Hotmail, Skype, Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter, was being interviewed on CNBC's "Squawk Alley" at a time when U.S. stocks were down (due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic) and Bitcoin was trading around $9,700.

Principal anchor Carl Quintanilla started the interview by asking Draper about his thoughts on the valuations of U.S. stocks and whether thery were too frothy.

Draper Replied:

"Actually, I got to admit [that] I have been out of the market for about six months. It felt pretty lofty for me, and I kind of moved most of my stuff to crypto and Bitcoin. I think that's kind of a safe haven now, and I think this correction may end up being more than that, but I think we're in for a kind of an interesting ride."

Quintanilla then wanted to know what pushed Draper out of stocks six months ago.

Draper said:

"Well, it just got very frothy -- the market got too excited and Uber drivers were doing day trading, and you know all the signs were there. So, I think it was time.

"I think it's a good time to be in the private markets -- that's what I do, and so at Draper Associates, we're very happy that we're continuing to be in the private markets, but I think in the public markets. it just got frothy and then there's the fear of socialism.

"I mean, nobody wants socialism. Capitalism may only work 70% of the time, but socialism has never worked in the history of man. So, I don't understand why there's this move, but I think there's some fear there, and I think there's some interesting things coming."

Co-anchor Morgan Brennan then asked Draper where he saw the Bitcoin going from here.

Draper answered:

"I'm still holding to my prediction. I think Bitcoin in 2022, or at the beginning of 2023, will hit $250,000, and that is a big move from where it is here. And I think that the reason is that Bitcoin will be the currency of choice.

Right now, you have this choice, and Bitcoin is not as easy to move around, but eventually it will be, and then you'll have a choice, and you'll say 'hey do I want to pay the banks 2.5 to 4 percent every time I swipe my credit card or do I want a currency that's frictionless, open, transparent, global, and not tied to any political force?'.

"At some point people are going to make that switch and Bitcoin is going to be the big winner."

Another co-anchor, Jon Fortt, wanted to know how much of Draper's money was invested in Bitcoin, but Draper did want to give him a specific number, and he just said "a lot of it." 

He then added:

"I think the world is going to be much better off because [of] this decentralized movement, and it's not just Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is decentralized currency, but it's decentralized everything, and I think that the some of the politicians are clinging to the past and clinging to their tribalism, but most of the best politicians are moving toward this new world that's global and open and transparent.

I think that's going to be the new world. I think it'll be a more beautiful, more loving, and more peaceful world, but you're going to see a lot of tension on the way to getting to that world."

Draper was also asked by Quintanilla to comment on Warren Buffett's interview on the same program earlier in the day, when he said that cryptocurrencies have "no value" and "don't produce anything" and that people who invest in them are essentially believers in The Greater Fool Theory. Buffett also said in the same interview that he would never own any crypto (even though TRON Foundation CEO Justin Sun has claimed that during a recent dinner, he gave Buffett as gifts two Samsung Galaxy Fold phones containing Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies).

Draper had this to say:

"That is hilarious. 50% of his holdings are banks and insurance companies. They're not gonna do well in this new decentralized economy.

Of course, he is not going to like it. He sees a huge threat to his holdings -- his holdings are more than 50 percent in banks and insurance companies [at Berkshire Hathaway]."

After seeing this interview, Binance Co-Founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (aka "CZ") went on Twitter to compliment Draper on his excellent understanding of crypto, and invited him to lunch so that they could have a chance to speak on this topic:

Last month, Draper was asked during an interview on FOX Business to give his "best advice" to millennials when it comes to investing for retirement.

He offered this advice:

"Go Bitcoin, go decentralized, start building your empire in the new model that doesn't require that you to have to pay two and a half to four percent every time you swipe your credit card to some bank or another and doesn't require all the heavy regulations we have that are all tied to the dollar... I think if you really want it to work, I think you go Bitcoin or crypto or the new way... I would focus on the future..."