Yesterday morning (September 30, 2018), popular analyst Tom Lee posted a poll on Twitter to gauge the public sentiment on the cryptocurrency market’. Launched in 2014, Fundstrat Global Advisors has always been ahead of the curve when it comes to cryptocurrency research. Tom currently serves Fundstrat as a Managing Partner and the Head of Research.
Mr Lee asked his 57,000 Twitter followers six questions, all of which reveal key insights into what the market is thinking. Each question received between five and six thousand answers. The original tweets can be read here, and the questions are reproduced below:
Question 1: What do you think is the most important macro factor influencing crypto prices?
- Central banks - 35%
- Emerging markets - 27%
- USD - 18%
- Geopolitical tension - 20%
Question 2: Do you think Crypto prices rise in a recession?
- Yes - 59%
- No - 41%
Question 3: When do you think Bitcoin will bottom?
- Bottom before year 2018 - 25%
- Bottom by march 2019 - 18%
- Bottom after mid-2019 - 12%
- Bitcoin already bottomed - 45%
Question 4: Where is Bitcoins price by year-end 2019?
- Below $6,999 - 12%
- $7,000 to $10,000 - 20%
- $10,000 to $15,000 - 25%
- $15,000 to moon - 43%
Question 5: Which token (of those below) do you see as the best performing in the next 12 months?
- Bitcoin - 33%
- Ethereum - 16%
- EOS - 8%
- XRP - 43%
Question 6: Which of these tokens “investment thesis” make the least sense to you?
- Bitcoin - 18%
- XRP - 30%
- TRON - 33%
- ETC - 19%
From the answers, we can tell that 45% of the participants think BTC has already bottomed. Although BTC is only $800 away from its yearly low of $5,743, a large amount of traders believe that the bottom is in. They could be in for serious disappointment if BTC drops to $3,000, as many analysts suggest.
What may be a surprise to many analysts, is the massive support for XRP. Even though XRP has rallied more than 100% in the past few weeks, 43% of participants say it’ll continue the upward trend, and be the best performing cryptocurrency out of the 4 choices over the next 12 months.
Another key takeaway is that 59% of the market thinks cryptocurrency prices rise in a recession. This has yet to be determined. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has never lived through a large-scale global recession. There’s not enough data to tell if Bitcoin will rise or fall during a financial crisis.
Many Bitcoin proponents see it as a form of “Digital Gold”, following on from this we can take a look at gold to see how bitcoin will perform during a recession. Throughout 2008, gold dropped 30%. Some analysts believe that in a recession most assets suffer as investors liquidate to cash to sure up their portfolios. This could mean that when the next global financial crisis hits Bitcoin will suffer a similar fate as gold.