CEO of Prediction Market Platform Gnosis: ‘Ethereum Is Blooming and We Are Doubling Down on It’

Siamak Masnavi

On Thursday (16 August 2018),  Martin Köppelmann, the co-founder and CEO of prediction market platform Gnosis, said in a blog post (titled "Ethereum is blooming and we are doubling down on it") that his company was a firm believer in Ethereum (the blockchain that powers Gnosis) and that they were going to do their best to make it "flourish" by implementing a "web3/Ethereum first strategy."

Not Worried About Price of Ether

Köppelmann says that he and his team are not worried about the drop in the price of Ether (ETH):

"We don’t care too much. Being active in the space since Bitcoin $9 this is nothing new and we prepared for this event. We have a team of over 50 people now working full time on the Gnosis platform and we can continue to finance this for the next 5–7 years without the need to sell any of our ~200k ETH in reserve."

Best Way to Measure Ethereum's Success

He then explains that we should measure the success of Ethereum not by the price of Ether, but by the amount of useful, in-demand DApps that take advantage of being on the same platform by co-operating with each other:

"The numbers we care about is the usage of decentralized applications. And as a next step, the number to look out for is DAPPs that seemlessly interact with each other and draw a benefit from being on the same platform. As a side effect, ultimately the price of ETH will then be a function of the demand for the use of applications in this reliable, open, and interlinked envoirment."

This is a tweet he sent out on 24 July 2018 that expresses in a slightly different way the idea that these types of co-operating DApps create "network effects" for Ethereum:

When asked by one Twitter user to give an example of this in the context of Gnosis, Köppelmann sent the following reply:

Hugh Karp, the founder of Ethereum-powered insurer Nexus Mutual, agrees with Köppelmann:

Doubling Down on Ethereum

Köppelmann says that since they have chosen Ethereum to be the "primary envionment" for the platform they are building, it only makes sense if they do all they can to make this environment "flourish", following the idea that "a rising tide lifts all boats."

So, what they are going to do is to implement a Web 3.0 (Ethereum DApps) first stategy: "Whenever there is a viable decentralized alternative, we will use it."

Here are some of the examples he provides:

  • "We will use some ETH in reserve for CDPs on Maker"
  • "We will give control as soon as possible to DAOs"
  • "We will do all tweets first on Peepeth"
  • "We will post our blog posts first on Akasha once it is on Mainnet"
  • "We will use prediction markets to see if we are on track of our milestones"

Also, he says that they will try to make their contributions to the ecosystem, such as Safe and DutchX, as easy as possible for other DApps to use.


Featured Image Credit: Image Courtesy of Gnosis

Weekly Newsletter

Bitcoin Dominance Bump Unlikely to Last — Market Analysis

The entire crypto market seems to be going risk-off and turning to a state of correction, after an excellent start to 2020 throughout January and February which saw significant gains. This is reflected in the brief pop in Bitcoin market dominance. But in the longer term, it’s a different story, and we must always bear in mind the intercourse the conflicting trends of different timeframes – and how they can still agree with each other.

Here, rather than focusing on any specific crypto, we’ll look at the market as a whole using some trusted indicators.

We first look at a small-to-medium-timeframe chart of Bitcoin plus Bitcoin’s market dominance arrayed against the “Others” market dominance, Others being a basket of all altcoins below the top 10. This panoply of charts gives us a broad insight into the whole market.

just some speedbumpsBTC chart by TradingView

During January and some of February, we can see clear risk-taking in the form of a rising altcoin market share. Bitcoin’s price was rising even as its dominance was falling: peak altcoin conditions, where so much buying is coming into the system that more entities are buying Bitcoin than selling Bitcoin for altcoins, even when there is a lot of that.

This pattern has reversed in the past few days, with Bitcoin’s price falling even as its dominance rose, with altcoins being sold back into Bitcoin. The market was overheated in the short term, and people are wisely hedging their profits.

But this trend is unlikely to last. Zooming out and looking at a chart of Ethereum/Bitcoin and both dominance charts again (with Ethereum being a general proxy for the altcoin market), we see a different story.

the bigger picture says the opposite thingETH chart by TradingView

There is a lot going on here. First we can note that Ethereum – again, bearing in mind its role as a general proxy for altcoins – has retaken a very important inflection line that it lost during 2019, the dotted line. It is likely, based on this line retaken last week, that Ethereum is starting a long term uptrend against Bitcoin – and that altcoins in general will do the same in the long term.

Moving to the Bitcoin dominance display in the middle panel, we see an agreement of the above thesis. Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen below its own critical level, namely the area near and above 70%, which BTC held for a while during 2019. This level had not been held since 2017, when Bitcoin put in its all-time-high – and it now looks to be trending steadily away from it again.

This trending away will again provide the space for altcoins to grow in market share, and we have already seen the beginning of this trend during 2020. Perhaps what we have seen was only ‘Round One’.

And moving below to the Others dominance, we see that this indicator has, yet again, taken an important level of 6% and is likely trending away from it. This is the same message in reverse: this level was first tickled during the first real altcoin mega-rally, in the beginning of 2017, and stayed above it for years. It was lost for a time in 2019, about the same time Bitcoin retook its level of 70%.

The larger trends are likely moving in the opposite direction than the shorter ones. Bitcoin's price, based on these indicators, is likely to continue rising even as its market share continues to falls. Altcoins, after years of being battered, are likely to continue gaining market share; and in that situation, the pie can only be getting larger overall.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

Featured Image Credit: Photo via