Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, has recently argued that the price of bitcoin doesn’t move in correlation to the stock market or vice-versa, as according to him the correlative theory is wrong.
While speaking on CNBC’s “Trading Nation,” Bilello noted that last year bitcoin went up over 1,000 percent, and that as the equity market kept having a great year, analysts started claiming“ they both went up together and perhaps they should go down together.”
Earlier this year, both the S&P 500 and the flagship cryptocurrency dropped. The index lost nearly 12 percent from its record high to a year-to-date low in February, while during the same period BTC dropped 33 percent. Per Bilello, the relationship between both collapsed then. He said:
“If we're looking at from the peak last December, bitcoin is down over 60 percent and the S&P over that period of time is actually up 4 percent."
Analyzing long-term data confirms, per the analyst, that the bitcoin-stocks theory is wrong. During the flagship cryptocurrency’s last crash in late 2013, the S&P 500 was up 12 percent, while BTC dropped 85 percent after the infamous Mt Gox hack.
Per Bilello it’s important to separate correlation from causation, as stocks are “obviously” tied to a “long-term stream of earnings.” Bitcoin, on the other hand, is “entirely tied to sentiment.” He added:
"If we go back to 2010 when we have data on bitcoin and compare that to the S&P, we're finding a zero correlation over time. Just because something has a zero correlation doesn't mean they won't move at times in the same direction."
The analyst noted that most believe bitcoin and stocks are tied together “because there’s risk appetite in the markets,” something that needs to be divorced from actual data. This, as CNBC notes, is good news for worried stock investors, as the bitcoin-stocks theory would imply the S&P is about to crash.
Bitcoin, according to CryptoCompare data, is trading at about $6,460 at press time, after falling 1.18 percent in the last 24-hour period.