Tom Lee, His Bitcoin Misery Index, and Why He Is Still Confident About Bitcoin Reaching $25,000 by Year End

Siamak Masnavi
  • Fundstrat's Tom Lee introduced his proprietary Bitcoin Misery Index on 9 March 2018.
  • This index, which is a contrarian indicator, measures market sentiment towards Bitcoin, and is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100.
  • Lee explains why he remains confident of his $25,000 price target for Bitcoin (by year end) even though the index is currently at 30.

Last Friday, shortly after Consensus 2018 ended, Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Head of Research there, talked to CNBC's Fast Money about his Bitcoin Misery Index.

Lee, who had predicted on May 7th, as covered here on CryptoGlobe, that Bitcoin (BTC) price would rally as a result of the Consensus 2018 conference in New York City, was first asked why this rally had not yet materialized and what had gone wrong. He mainly blamed the growing sentiment during last week that regulatory clarity would take longer than people had expected.

He also said that although there was some good news on the custodial front (such as investment bank Nomura getting involved) and more institutions were getting interested in getting into the crypto space, it would take some more time before internal evangelism within institutions would grow sufficiently for them to wholeheartedly buy into cryptocurrencies.

The discussion then moved to Lee's Bitcoin Misery Index, which he had introduced to the world on 9 March 2018. This index, which is meant to a contrarian indicator (i.e. you should buy when the index is high and sell when it is low), is calculated on a scale from 0 to 100. It measures sentiment towards Bitcoin by examining data such as price volatility and percentage of winning trades. Lee tried to explain the index in this way: "Think of this index as a way to measure how happy or sad you are owning bitcoin."

On the 9 March 2018, the index was at 18.8, which sounds pretty miserable, and Lee confirmed this value is "telling us that bitcoin holders are miserable." According to his report that was published earlier that day, this was a buy signal since "when the bitcoin misery index is at 'misery' (below 27), bitcoin sees the best 12-month performance." 

Well, last Friday, 18 May 2018, the index was at 30, which means that people are less miserable than they were on 9 March 2018. The host of the show asked Lee if he was still sticking to his forecast of the Bitcoin price reaching $25,000 before the end of 2018. He replied "absolutely" and went on to explain why:

"We have to keep in mind that Bitcoin at $8,000 and Bitcoin, let's say we think it can reach $25,000, it does not require Bitcoin to go up everyday till the end of the year. Remember, the ten best days account for all the return of Bitcoin. If you didn't own Bitcoin for ten days each year, you lost 25% a year since 2010. So, clearly, Bitcoin is something where only a handful of days account for the gain. So, I think it's really good news that the Bitcoin Misery Index, which had dropped to 18, which was awful, a month ago, is now back to 30. It is acting more consistently, but it is, among the 16 currencies we watch, the worst cryptocurrency on the misery index level. So, EOS is the highest, and Bitcoin is the lowest."

Thomas Lee, Co-Founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors


Crypto Market Update for 24 February 2020: BTC, ETH, ADA, and TRX

Siamak Masnavi

This article provides an overview of how Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and TRON (TRX) have been doing over the past 24-hour period, and covers recent news that might have affected their prices (or might do so in the future).

To give you a rough idea of how well the crypto markets are doing today, 18 out of the top 20 cryptoassets (by market cap) are currently in the red (against the dollar).

All market data used in this article was taken around 10:00 UTC on 24 February 2020 from CryptoCompare, which also provided the price charts shown in this article.


BTC-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

BTC-USD is trading at $9,715. This means that the Bitcoin price has been under the $10K level since February 20. Still, Bitcoin has still managed to gain +37.60% against USD in the year-to-date (YTD) period.

As for why Bitcoin is having trouble breaking through the $10K level, one theory is that Bitcoin is currently being seen more as a "risk-on" rather a "risk-off" asset; another is that Bitcoin whales are manipulating the market.

Here is prominent crypto analyst/trader Josh Rager with some technical analysis of Bitcoin's latest price action:


ETH-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

ETH-USD is trading at $265.99. Although ETH-USD has dropped 0.92% in the past seven-day period, for the YTD period, it is up +103.37%.


ADA-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

ADA-USD set a six-month high on February 14 when it hit $0.07083. Since then, it's been going downhill.

Although the 7-day and 10-day pictures look bad, Cardano's return-on-investment (ROI) figures (against USD) for the 30-day, YTD, and 90-day periods look quite decent, being +36.99%, +76.77%, and +60.44% respectively.

On February 21, IOHK tweeted that the Cardano network had successfully carried out a scheduled network upgrade (a hard fork) to bring in Ouroboros BFT (a new consensus mechanism):


TRX-USD 24 Hour Chart on 24 Feb 2020.png

TRX-USD is trading at $0.0204, which means that TRON is currently the 16-th most valuable cryptoasset by reported market cap.

TRX-USD has dropped -6.35% in the past 7-day period, but so far in 2020, it is up +54.45%.

Earlier today, in an article for Coindesk, Alexander S. Blum, the Chief Operating Officer of crypto finance firm Two Prime, wrote:

"Viewed through the lens of traditional finance, TRON is acting pretty predictably. It is acquiring more market share through the acquisition of weakened competitors, like BitTorrent, and their networks while promoting their retail financial product. They’re performing a balancing act between being a financial product and a technical one...

"Justin is leading TRON as a for-profit business pretty well. Why does that irk many hardcore developers? For those in the Western world sticking up their noses at TRON, it’s worth reflecting on how deeply elitist it is to judge from a position of pure technical idealism...

"The emergence of TRON in highly competitive Asian markets is commendable. They are pioneering a new business model and creating wealth ex nihilo – out of thin air – because they focus on what works today. Their users share the company’s pragmatism. TRON, EOS and Ripple are pioneering community-centric financial products that offer exciting new models for wealth creation."

Featured Image by "AhmadArdity" via