John McAfee on Bitcoin: ‘You Can’t Stop It’, Reiterates $1 Million by 2020 Price Target

  • On Bitcoin: "It's not going to disappear. It can't possibly go to zero. It can only grow as the user base grows."
  • On cryptocurrencies in general: "Digital currencies will replace fiat currencies."

Cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee, in a recent interview, reiterated the famous prediction he made on 29 November 2017 on Twitter -- namely that one bitcoin would be worth $1 million by 2020 -- and explained how he arrived at that figure.

The first question was: "Why do you think Bitcoin will go to $1 million by 2020?"

McAfee answered: "There all kinds of ways to do it. The most common way is to take number of users of Bitcoin... because as Bitcoin expands its user base, both people who hold the coin and people who accept the coin for payment... It's sky-rocketing... It's not going to disappear. It can't possibly go to zero. It can only grow as the user base grows. So, it's impossible... Listen, it's Pandora's Box... The box has been opened...

Digital currencies will replace fiat currencies. Why? I have a wallet on my phone which is an entire bank... Lending money, sending wires, I don't have to go to the bank. It takes me 10 seconds to do a wire... Do you think that is going to go to zero and we're going to go back to this incredibly dull and bizarre way of using money with banks?"

The next question was why McAfee was not worried about the effect of regulations on Bitcoin.

McAfee answered: "Congress can make all the laws it wants. Obviously, they can outlaw Bitcoin. You are assuming there is a possibility of enforcing those laws... You cannot stop a distributed system that is worldwide. There is no law that you can make... If you had one person per citizen in the country... You still couldn't do it because the enforcer would have to sleep at some point... When exchanges were centralized, you could shut down an exchange. You can't do it anymore. They have now decentralized the exchanges... How will you enforce these magical laws that Congress is going to make? Jamie Dimon has no power in this world..."

The interviewer then asked what if the government tries to make it difficult for people to spend their bitcoin.

McAfee responded: "How are you going to make it difficult? What are you going to do to make it difficult? ... The banks are not involved. The banks have nothing to do with it... The misconception is that legislation can have teeth... You can't stop Bitcoin... Technologically impossible!"

Next, McAfee was asked if he had come up with the $1 million price target based on a mathematical formula or if he had come up with the figure based on some assumptions about its usage.

He replied: "I looked at it in two way... [First] I looked at the number of users, the user growth... I came up maybe with three and seven million... [Second] I came at it the mining way, which is I believe a lot more valid... The last bitcoin to be mined... It is going to cost four to five billion dollars to mine that last coin and miners are going to do it. The value of that bitcoin has got to be more than the work put in to mine it... So if it cost even one billion dollars, why don't you work backwards from there and find out what the end of 2020 it is going to be? ... $5 million it is probably the thing... So, $1 million is way outside the lower range, so I am very safe... And it is not just Bitcoin... There are 2000 other coins... You cannot stop them. You cannot change them. You cannot control them. Accept them and try to fix your life to get in line with reality... In the 1930s we made it a law that you couldn't drink alcohol. We consumed more alcohol per capita during that period than any period in American history..."

Although quite a few famous Bitcoin bulls have given what seem like quite outlandish figures as their price targets, such as Tim Draper's $250,000 price target by 2022, McAfee's is by far the highest and the period of time -- only two years -- to reach that target is the shortest we have come across this year.

Billionaire Novogratz: Altcoins Won't Pump Like In 2017 Bull Run, Bitcoin Will Dominate

It appears that cryptocurrency prices have finally begun to recover after enduring an extended bear market which lasted throughout 2018.

As the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptoassets continues to rise, several analysts have been drawing comparisons between what they’re seeing in the current market and what they observed during the historic bull market of late 2017 and early 2018.

Commenting on the recent crypto market price movements via Twitter, Ran NeuNer, the host of the CNBC Africa Trader show, remarked:

The market is running but we still haven’t seen the crazy alt pumps, pumps where coins do 40% in a day...is it coming?

Bitcoin To “Outperform” All Other Cryptos “This Time”

As the bitcoin price begins to recover, there have been many predictions made regarding the anticipated performance of altcoins. Twitter user “Crypto Bitlord” (@Crypto_Bitlord), a widely-followed digital asset market analyst, believes XRP, which currently has a market cap of around $16.3 billion, may trade as high as $10.

However, prominent crypto investor Michael Novogratz believes that digital asset traders are a lot smarter this time, when compared to some of the bad investment decisions they might have made during the initial coin offering (ICO) craze of 2017.

Novogratz, who’s the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, a full-service crypto merchant bank, has predicted that in this market run, Bitcoin will “outperform” all other cryptoassets.

On May 16th, 2019, the Bitcoin price surged to a 2019 high of $8,373 according to CryptoCompare data. In response to bitcoin’s recent price movements, Juan Villaverde, the Chief Analyst at Weiss Crypto Ratings, told CryptoGlobe: 

Bitcoin could fall to as low as $4,400. But [if] it does, it will be the best Bitcoin buying opportunity since 2015.

“More Good News For New Bitcoin Users”

Villaverde, an econometrician and mathematician focused on developing various crypto index models at Weiss Ratings, believes bitcoin would be a great buy at a lower price (as suggested above) because of the following reasons:

  • “The usage of Bitcoin is near all-time highs – 450,000 transactions per day. That’s up from a low of 150,000 in April of 2018 and approaching the all-time high of 490,000 in December of 2017.”
  • “Despite the high transaction volume, fees on the Bitcoin network are at their lowest levels since August of 2017 – more good news for users.”
  • “The Bitcoin block size is now greater than ever before, thanks to the Segwit technology upgrade.”

Villaverde further noted that the predictions are “based on studying the time patterns in Bitcoin's rises and falls throughout its 9 year trading history.” He explained that the time patterns have been analyzed by using an “algorithm-based market cycles model.”

The Chief Analyst at Weiss Ratings also mentioned that the bear market “ended on December 15th 2018 and the model confirmed this shift in trend on March 26th of this year.”

He added:

Then, after the rally that took place starting on April 25th, the same model told me a new bull market was now underway. The same model indicated a 30% to 45% correction due as of late April-early May and we seem to be experiencing that right now.